Stratagem-15 FM - MAFIA VICTORY

[Zugzwang]

this is… a strange analysis. not sure if it’s scummy yet, but I can at least explain why it’s wrong.

@WindwardAway

I think pushing stubbornly on lol after he claimed vanillized cop is actually super wolfy and I’m not sure if it loops around to being TWTBAW or if it’s just permanently wolfy because I’m trying to judge your motive for doing so - whether you’re still attempting to obfuscate with the cop situation or if you genuinely want an excuse to vote lol out.

I don’t know how you’d expect me as a wolf to seriously think I could get the cop voted out (unless I am a wolf who doesn’t believe the claim which seems a little strange and isn’t what you’re suggesting).
Like, if lol is actually the cop, he’ll keep his claim, and I’ll be asked to either CC or not. If I CC I die the next day, and if I don’t, I don’t push lol out.

@WindwardAway

And the one thing that points to the former is that I think it’s unlikely you’ll convince the majority to vote lol out today, but when I look at your very insistent push on Abbi yesterday, I see the exact same thing: you’re pushing on a player who seems fairly consensus townread and sticking to your guns, and I’m not sure if you just make very rigid reads as town?

I wanted to put pressure on Abbi and to get a response about what I found scummy. I was not set on them being scum, and I think that should be pretty evident from how I unvoted them after they gave a satisfying answer.

@WindwardAway

Because sticking to pushing Abbi yesterday and lol today, when I get the sense that both situations involve unpopular vote candidates, is wolfy PARTICULARLY because yesterday most of us wanted guava out and guava flipped town (you fit the idea of an off-wagon wolf who doesn’t want to whiteknight the townie) and today lol happens to have very convincingly claimed cop and you’re still on him like you want to dig up reasons to get him out. Plus, lol had you in his PoE of 3 yesterday which also fits in with the notion that maybe he was targeted by the vanillizer because he was right, but still not widely townread, so he wouldn’t have been a kill target but he would’ve been a perfect test target to see if he’s a cop.

I was offline for the ~3 hours before eod. The VC at my final post before leaving (1198):

WindwardAway (2): lol, guavagudetama
guavagudetama (2): PrincessAbigail, Arctic
lol (2): Luka, WindwardAway
Caitlin (1): Garfooled
PrincessAbigail (1): May
Zugzwang (1): Caitlin

Not Voting (2): Psyx, Zugzwang

Clearly, there was not yet a consensus, so I couldn’t have been trying to look good by being off-wagon. I suppose you could argue (from your point of view + trusting lol’s claim) that all the top wagons were town and I felt it would be best to not vote, but generally, not voting is considered suspicious, and it would be more so later on when it is known that most/all wagons were t/t. It would be a better bet to place a vote somewhere and hope the wagon I chose died down.

Then, when I came back at eod, I proposed switching the lim to abi/cait/lol/wind/gar. I do this in a way that made it ~impossible for me to deny any choice from Arctic:

@Arctic

just stuff from before
do you have a better idea

@Zugzwang

i don’t tr abi/cait/lol/gar/wind
so yes

Unless you think all those 5 are town, I’m risking a scummate for ~no reason. Also, I’m risking myself. People could have found me scummy, or the Guava wagon could have been split, leaving me with plurailty.

As for the part about lol being vanillaized - fair enough. Though it does also apply to you

[Zugzwang]

@Zugzwang

if you rescind your claim i’m deathtunneling you

@lol

CC me instead of writing pointless threats

This is (part of) why I don’t believe his claim. The real cop knows no one will CC, so expecting one here is ???. The other reasons are that it makes ~0 sense to claim right now and he was also just being wolfy.

And I don’t think he’s VT because he knows better than to try to bait out a CC when he’s fakeclaiming.

I do think this makes sense as a wolf - he can spew people as VT and possibly bait out the real PR. Sure he does have a high chance of dying for it, but given his play yesterday it’s pretty clear he’s getting limmed at some point anyway.

[Garfooled]

ok question for arctic
you said you forgot about the vanilla maker thingy
when did you forget?
before the game started?

[Psyx]

@Psyx

Townlean: Abbi
Upper null: Luka, May
Null: Arctic, Wind, Zugz, lol, Garfooled

I’ll be honest: when I took a good look at this readlist last night, I had a lightbulb moment that Arctic could be paired with Garfooled.

I haven’t ISO-ed Garfooled yet, but from Arctic’s ISO:

• they’re playing so carefully and somehow managed to tread the fine line between hedge/defensive while looking reasonable at the same time (when townies slip at least once)
• they townleaned garfooled pretty early on for “level 1 reasons” (along with Luka) in #147 and moved against guava (#315) & May (#334), who were garfooled’s main sussers
• #334 is a brilliant defense in a w!Arctic + w!garfooled world since Arctic uses May’s meta to discredit their garfooled case while adding sus on May
• then they claimed Gar’s only towny posts were at the start of the game (#1211) but kept chiming in when Abbi and May started to sus Gar again in #1339, #1366

[Garfooled]

@Psyx

#334 is a brilliant defense in a w!Arctic + w!garfooled world since Arctic uses May’s meta to discredit their garfooled case while adding sus on May

WRONG
I believe it was the other way around?
May accuses me of that thing, my meta
AFTER this happens
I think?

[Psyx]

I’m gonna ISO Garfooled next to make sure this team makes sense

[Arctic]

yes
I read the setup the day signups were posted and the game took a while to fill

[Garfooled]

I remember this because May accuses me of the meta thing
AFTER I bring up my meta to discredit her about bringing up their TR of Arctic
WHICH was what you are talking about
About Arctic using May’s meta

[Psyx]

@Garfooled

WRONG
I believe it was the other way around?
May accuses me of that thing, my meta
AFTER this happens
I think?

…? May sussed you due to your meta, then Arctic sussed that using May’s meta. What’s wrong about this?

[Garfooled]

No,
I know I’m confusing let me explain
This is the order of events I remember

1. May does the thing where they TR Arctic and explain why, and Arctic accuses them of it being part of their meta about uhhh giving good TMI reads
2. I post a past game where May explains my meta, which I use it against May because they were a wolf that game
3. This is when May uses that post against me, AFTER I quote her meta take on me

[Arctic]

@Psyx

then they claimed Gar’s only towny posts were at the start of the game (#1211) but kept chiming in when Abbi and May started to sus Gar again in #1339, #1366

…how are you trying to make a point of this when the posts I brought up at eod were posted at eod? That doesn’t mean the post where I said garfooled’s only towny posts were at sod is invalid because I made that post before he had made the eod posts…

like yes, before eod i did think he was only towny at sod, but then I saw how his posts at eod could also be towny. and I just checked those posts anyway and they aren’t really saying he’s town, the first is just asking why Luka was doing a strange preflip and the second was saying I don’t think garfooled’s behaviour at eod was scummy

[Garfooled]

@Garfooled

past game where May explains my meta

They explain why I’m town here btw, in that game

[Psyx]

@Garfooled

No,
I know I’m confusing let me explain
This is the order of events I remember

1. May does the thing where they TR Arctic and explain why, and Arctic accuses them of it being part of their meta about uhhh giving good TMI reads
2. I post a past game where May explains my meta, which I use it against May because they were a wolf that game
3. This is when May uses that post against me, AFTER I quote her meta take on me

Arctic uses May’s meta after this whole thing (#334)

[Garfooled]

tbh be honest,
I didn’t check what post 334 was
I’m just assuming you’re talking about the one where Arctic calls May on past meta before they “leveled up”

[Garfooled]

@Arctic

your push on garfooled worries me a bit because the premise being mismatched confidence kinda feels like how you pushed me last game when you were mafia. i don’t really think projecting more confidence than you actually have is necessarily wolf indicative in a vacuum, either. like that’s normally how RVS goes for most people, isn’t it? nobody actually has any idea what they’re doing, and most people’s reads don’t extend beyond a slight gutread one way or the other, but nobody actually expresses them in that way - they express them just like any other read. i seemed confident on cait but i’m not, the reality is i had a read on what they had posted so far and yet i recognized i can only be so confident with it given how little i’m working from, but disclaiming to be extremely not confident didn’t feel very useful at that point

Okay no
We are talking about 2 different things

[Psyx]

@Arctic

…how are you trying to make a point of this when the posts I brought up at eod were posted at eod? That doesn’t mean the post where I said garfooled’s only towny posts were at sod is invalid because I made that post before he had made the eod posts…

like yes, before eod i did think he was only towny at sod, but then I saw how his posts at eod could also be towny. and I just checked those posts anyway and they aren’t really saying he’s town, the first is just asking why Luka was doing a strange preflip and the second was saying I don’t think garfooled’s behaviour at eod was scummy

My point is not that “Arctic saying garfooled’s only towny posts were at sod is invalid”, it’s that in a wolf!Arctic + wolf!garfooled world, it would make sense for you to subtly push against a Gar wagon near EOD

[Garfooled]

But yes that’s a mood
I do project confidence as town

@Garfooled

lemme tell u a secret

whispers: “i have no idea what I’m doing”

[Psyx]

@Garfooled

Okay no
We are talking about 2 different things

??? Okay, but are you still saying my timeline of events is wrong?

[Garfooled]

ok im laughing because i am not town in that
this is not a gotcha moment
dont kill me over this!
i was inquisitor
with a Baron as one of my targets
i was PRACTICALLY town

[Garfooled]

@Psyx

??? Okay, but are you still saying my timeline of events is wrong?

no idea
i didnt even see that post until now
i thought you were talking abouit a different May meta post