The Amazing Digital Circus Vigilante ten-er - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[Magnus]

All things considered, the enthusiasm behind suspecting Zug has waned, irrespective of Gar’s alignment. A brief skim over one of Zug’s performance in a recent scumgame demonstrated a narrow focus towards reading other players in that game, and here Zug’s been relatively verbal interacting from slot to slot. Even if his tone and specific outlooks seem off, I can accept a mistake.

Garfooled has been implicitly set up as the D1 execution and they aren’t particularly fighting nor surrendering to it. If Mafia, evil wouldn’t want to vote Gar so early in the Vigilante setup which supports Zug and Pandora. Considering the Rhea vote on Jail, I think comparing Rhea and Jail’s engagement should take centre focus, especially if Gar is evil. But if Gar isn’t evil, the current wagons are probably T/T and we should put someone else under the scope…

The gamestate suggests v!Jail either way but that’s a weak assumption.

@Zugzwang

This post was (and is) a large part of my TR on Magnus. Thinking about how they’ve narrowed down the teams occurs to an eager townie, and not a wolf. Which is why I wanted to know if Magnus was serious when writing this, because if they were, then it makes a lot more sense for T!Magnus to have this thought.

This isn’t a great reason to townread someone. I’ve calculated combinations before in the past so it’s something that would occur to me either way, given that it’s demonstrably premeditated unless you think I pulled that number out of thin air.

The townread might have been generous at the time I made it, but since Tutuu was statistically town and appeared blatantly pure as a polarised player, I didn’t tinfoil it too hard.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

This isn’t a great reason to townread someone. I’ve calculated combinations before in the past so it’s something that would occur to me either way, given that it’s demonstrably premeditated unless you think I pulled that number out of thin air.

I thought you did find that number on the spot - it’s just 8 choose 2.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

Even if his tone and specific outlooks seem off, I can accept a mistake.

What is your outlook, on everyone?

[Magnus]

Expecting myself and then Tutuu to be nightkilled by Mafia, willing to shield Leafia and Jail from elimination although we might need to swap one of them around, everyone else can probably die by execution / Vigi and it’s all fine.

Someone is characteristically town but not in a way I can hardconfirm. I vaguely would’ve expected w!Someone to pose mechanical questions and cast an agenda-motivated vote somewhere, whereas v!Someone feels lost at sea without moorings due to the social context.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

Expecting myself and then Tutuu to be nightkilled by Mafia, willing to shield Leafia and Jail from elimination although we might need to swap one of them around, everyone else can probably die by execution / Vigi and it’s all fine.

Hm. Then why would you say my outlook is off?

@Zugzwang

— Town
tutuu
jail
Leafia
pandora, Magnus
bystander

— Null
Someone

— Light wolf
Rhea (if Gar is town move to null though)

— Lean wolf
Garfooled

here rn
ordered within tiers

@Magnus

Someone is characteristically town but not in a way I can hardconfirm. I vaguely would’ve expected w!Someone to pose mechanical questions and cast an agenda-motivated vote somewhere, whereas v!Someone feels lost at sea without moorings due to the social context.

Can you cite Someone in previous games to show this? or at least name some games where this pattern has held

[Magnus]

@Zugzwang

Hm. Then why would you say my outlook is off?

Your demeanour and some of the explanations for your reads were off. The general structure of your readlist is just comparable to a majority of the reads made in this game, nobody’s really trying to cause a scene. That’s either great or terrible.

@Zugzwang

Can you cite Someone in previous games to show this? or at least name some games where this pattern has held

The standard v!Someone shtick of “I don’t know how you’re socially reading people” is visible from numerous recent town games and I don’t think it’s fairly contentious.
My assessment of how w!Someone could act stemmed from the BG3 game, but I think that was a bad read in hindsight, actually.

@Someone

VOTE: Thunderstorm

I interpreted this as a random early bus vote, but it was prompted by Bionic.

@Someone

doesnt that mean rn its XYLO

This was a rules discussion.

At the very least my expectation of the Vigilante question might apply, but the shtick is NAI (and possibly even forced as evil). But it’s a bad read.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

Your demeanour and some of the explanations for your reads were off.

My demeanor is mostly NAI, as noted earlier, though I’d understand if you don’t believe that. If there’s any specific explanations you think aren’t good, bring them up - either I can convince you otherwise, or your can improve my reads.

@Magnus

The general structure of your readlist is just comparable to a majority of the reads made in this game, nobody’s really trying to cause a scene. That’s either great or terrible.

I’ve been wondering about this myself. Currently though I feel confident enough on the popular TRs* to not be that concerned (though I do have a few paranoid thoughts about you and Leafia).

*and I also see reasonable worlds where they’re all town, and wolves simply got boxed out

[Magnus]

@Zugzwang

@bystander

tutus posts are like lowkey scary im ngl

Not w/w with Tutuu. Also somewhat towny for Bys, as W!Bys against T!Tutuu would know the source of their fear is Tutuu being a strong townie, and not wish to share that.

This message caught my eye earlier today, although I forgot about the specific contents until recently; this works as a representation. I dislike this logic despite appreciating the conclusion, since it not only explicitly suggests that w!Bystander would be afraid of v!Tutuu, but doesn’t consider why v!Bystander would be concerned about Tutuu.

The indication here is that v!Bystander could have been tinfoiling Tutuu at the time, and that’s the source of their fear. w!Bystander could be contemplating that v!Tutuu left their alignment unclear, and hoped to sow doubt. Your reasoning felt illogical.

[Zugzwang]

I didn’t note why v!Bystander would be concerned, because it seems quite obvious. Tutuu has a lot of thread influence, and is very proactive and somewhat forceful. If you don’t trust a player like that, then yes it’s quite natural to find them intimidating.

And I do feel that w!Bystander would be afraid of v!Tutuu, yes. Do you disagree with that? Or is it that you disagree with w!Bystander not wanting to share this feeling?

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

The indication here is that v!Bystander could have been tinfoiling Tutuu at the time

Also, note that this is Bystander’s 3rd post, about 2 minutes from when they entered thread. Almost certainly, they were not tinfoiling Tutuu. You can’t tinfoil someone you don’t have a read on yet. Rather, it was for reasons like these:

@Zugzwang

Tutuu has a lot of thread influence, and is very proactive and somewhat forceful. If you don’t trust a player like that, then yes it’s quite natural to find them intimidating.

[Magnus]

Wolf players usually tend to fall into the camp of fearing for their lives from players who could have their head, and oftentimes remain afraid until they reach the point of self-assurance where town should be afraid of them instead. I don’t think the raw comment is something that conclusively comes from town exclusively.

Aside note

@Zugzwang

Tutuu has a lot of thread influence, and is very proactive and somewhat forceful. If you don’t trust a player like that, then yes it’s quite natural to find them intimidating.

@Zugzwang

Almost certainly, they were not tinfoiling Tutuu.

These statements are antithetical to one another.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

Wolf players usually tend to fall into the camp of fearing for their lives from players who could have their head, and oftentimes remain afraid until they reach the point of self-assurance where town should be afraid of them instead. I don’t think the raw comment is something that conclusively comes from town exclusively.

I didn’t say it exclusively comes from town - Bystander is my least confident TR, after all. But I still believe a wolf is less likely to share something like that.

@Magnus

These statements are antithetical to one another.

They are not. Not trusting Tutuu =/= tinfoiling Tutuu. Tinfoiling requires having townread them.

[The-Showrunners]

Garfooled (2): pandora, Zugzwang
jail (2): Rhea, Leafia

Not Voting (6): tutuu, jail, bystander, Someone, Garfooled, Magnus

[tutuu]

The Magnus bomb shell about Zug and Gar had a lot of confident words in it. My reaction to it was to nod, think “Magnus smart”, “I already townread them” and move on. Let me read it more than just superficially

Okay well I feel like it’s a bit reachy but I can’t immediatley say it’s inaccurate. It could be accurate. I don’t know. I should lock Magnus as town for that that’s just way out there in terms of effort, I feel like they were playing Ace Attorney - Cornered theme on repeat while writing that. Also just never w/w with both Gar and Zug

I scrolled all the way down now and saw them saying the suspicion on Zug fades. Alright

Let me try something new for a change. Freshen things up a bit. I feel stale rn

pandora
jail
bystander
Someone
Leafia
Garfooled
Magnus
Rhea
Zugzwang

In case all of my townreads are correct, the possible teams fmpov are:

pandora + someone
pandora + garfooled
pandora + rhea
pandora + zugzwang
someone + garfooled
someone + rhea
someone + zugzwang
garfooled + rhea

So going over all of these teams, what is their strategy?

pandora + someone: stay afk, let town implode
pandora + garfooled: garfooled gives up and dies, pandora goofs around <— probably an unlikely strategy
pandora + rhea: reasonable strategy if its the team, rhea TMIs gar town for the cred, pushes jail, does the heavy lifting with pandora plays support. rhea also townread pandora so there’s mutual support there
pandora + zugzwang: the same as above, although they’ve decided to not interact with each other which isn’t unreasonable wolf behavior
someone + garfooled: same as pandora + garfooled ← probably an unlikely strategy? unless im making a dangerous read of assuming that wolves would tryhard and sweat when they don’t want to?
someone + rhea: same as rhea + pandora. pandora/someone interchangable fmpov
someone + zugzwang interestingly the same, unless i missed it zug also didn’t interact with someone. well to be fair its not like anyone interacted with someone too much except magnus giving an elaborate read. but somebody has to be mafia and we don’t live in a fair world so if i try to be very fair with the way i give out reads i might not do anything, maybe i need to be a bit dirty? or am i overthinking it?
garfooled + rhea: this has been talked about a bunch and i can see it

Now - there is obviously the chance I’m wrong on my townreads. They are, in this order:

Tutuu
Magnus
Jail

Leafia
Bystander

Let me combine my interpretations of the wolf strategies from above with my confidence in my townreads, and make a new combined list of overall likelyhood of scenarios (in my opinion)

From top to bottom: Most to least likely scenario (imo)

Garfooled + Rhea = Pandora + Someone
Pandora + Rhea
Someone + Zug / Rhea = Pandora + Zug
Pandora / Someone + Garfooled
I am wrong on a non w/w pairing I’ve made
I am wrong on my Bystander townread
I am wrong on my Leafia townread
I am wrong on my Jail townread
I am wrong on my Magnus townread

I am probably going to place my vote on one of {Gar, Someone, Pandora}. Voting Rhea D1 feels like losing control over paranoia more than anything. It could be an accurate vote, she could be Mafia, but I feel like executing Gar or Pandora before Rhea if they are the team feels more correct

If I am wrong on a non w/w pairing I’ve made but I’m still right on all of my townreads, then the team would have to be exactly either Zug + Gar or Zug + Rhea

[tutuu]

I’m probably going to vote with Magnus. I don’t trust myself too much at least early on. The most success I’ve found in Mafia games is trying to support my townreads. When I lead it ends in a disaster most of the time. Sometimes I can lead later on, Day 3 usually, but not Day 1. Day 1 = Bad. Don’t listen to me on Day 1 and arguably Day 2

[tutuu]

@tutuu

Don’t listen to me on Day 1

Unless I ended up correct here in which case it’s your guys’ fault for not listening to me

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

Also just never w/w with both Gar and Zug

is there something specific that made you think that?
Pairing a townie with a wolf, and then flipping the townie, to make it look like the wolf is probably town (since the argument against them was disproven) is, to my knowledge, a common strategy.

[tutuu]

Are you arguing that I should think Magnus + You are w/w? Which permutation exactly are you taking issue with that I’m writing off? Assuming it’s Magnus + Garfooled - well they aren’t trying to kill you, they dropped their scumread on you. I am guessing they will vote Garfooled, but we’ll see

[Zugzwang]

Magnus/Gar, of course. Do… you think I would object to the other?
Magnus isn’t trying to kill me, you’re right, but considering I ~entirely disproved their post against Gar/Me, and have somewhat disproved their individual issues with my reads, I don’t think they can really justify that.

[tutuu]

Alright well let’s see if we can get ourselves a pelt first and then bicker about it tomorrow imo