The Amazing Digital Circus Vigilante ten-er - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[tutuu]

The Magnus bomb shell about Zug and Gar had a lot of confident words in it. My reaction to it was to nod, think “Magnus smart”, “I already townread them” and move on. Let me read it more than just superficially

Okay well I feel like it’s a bit reachy but I can’t immediatley say it’s inaccurate. It could be accurate. I don’t know. I should lock Magnus as town for that that’s just way out there in terms of effort, I feel like they were playing Ace Attorney - Cornered theme on repeat while writing that. Also just never w/w with both Gar and Zug

I scrolled all the way down now and saw them saying the suspicion on Zug fades. Alright

Let me try something new for a change. Freshen things up a bit. I feel stale rn

pandora
jail
bystander
Someone
Leafia
Garfooled
Magnus
Rhea
Zugzwang

In case all of my townreads are correct, the possible teams fmpov are:

pandora + someone
pandora + garfooled
pandora + rhea
pandora + zugzwang
someone + garfooled
someone + rhea
someone + zugzwang
garfooled + rhea

So going over all of these teams, what is their strategy?

pandora + someone: stay afk, let town implode
pandora + garfooled: garfooled gives up and dies, pandora goofs around <— probably an unlikely strategy
pandora + rhea: reasonable strategy if its the team, rhea TMIs gar town for the cred, pushes jail, does the heavy lifting with pandora plays support. rhea also townread pandora so there’s mutual support there
pandora + zugzwang: the same as above, although they’ve decided to not interact with each other which isn’t unreasonable wolf behavior
someone + garfooled: same as pandora + garfooled ← probably an unlikely strategy? unless im making a dangerous read of assuming that wolves would tryhard and sweat when they don’t want to?
someone + rhea: same as rhea + pandora. pandora/someone interchangable fmpov
someone + zugzwang interestingly the same, unless i missed it zug also didn’t interact with someone. well to be fair its not like anyone interacted with someone too much except magnus giving an elaborate read. but somebody has to be mafia and we don’t live in a fair world so if i try to be very fair with the way i give out reads i might not do anything, maybe i need to be a bit dirty? or am i overthinking it?
garfooled + rhea: this has been talked about a bunch and i can see it

Now - there is obviously the chance I’m wrong on my townreads. They are, in this order:

Tutuu
Magnus
Jail

Leafia
Bystander

Let me combine my interpretations of the wolf strategies from above with my confidence in my townreads, and make a new combined list of overall likelyhood of scenarios (in my opinion)

From top to bottom: Most to least likely scenario (imo)

Garfooled + Rhea = Pandora + Someone
Pandora + Rhea
Someone + Zug / Rhea = Pandora + Zug
Pandora / Someone + Garfooled
I am wrong on a non w/w pairing I’ve made
I am wrong on my Bystander townread
I am wrong on my Leafia townread
I am wrong on my Jail townread
I am wrong on my Magnus townread

I am probably going to place my vote on one of {Gar, Someone, Pandora}. Voting Rhea D1 feels like losing control over paranoia more than anything. It could be an accurate vote, she could be Mafia, but I feel like executing Gar or Pandora before Rhea if they are the team feels more correct

If I am wrong on a non w/w pairing I’ve made but I’m still right on all of my townreads, then the team would have to be exactly either Zug + Gar or Zug + Rhea

[tutuu]

I’m probably going to vote with Magnus. I don’t trust myself too much at least early on. The most success I’ve found in Mafia games is trying to support my townreads. When I lead it ends in a disaster most of the time. Sometimes I can lead later on, Day 3 usually, but not Day 1. Day 1 = Bad. Don’t listen to me on Day 1 and arguably Day 2

[tutuu]

@tutuu

Don’t listen to me on Day 1

Unless I ended up correct here in which case it’s your guys’ fault for not listening to me

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

Also just never w/w with both Gar and Zug

is there something specific that made you think that?
Pairing a townie with a wolf, and then flipping the townie, to make it look like the wolf is probably town (since the argument against them was disproven) is, to my knowledge, a common strategy.

[tutuu]

Are you arguing that I should think Magnus + You are w/w? Which permutation exactly are you taking issue with that I’m writing off? Assuming it’s Magnus + Garfooled - well they aren’t trying to kill you, they dropped their scumread on you. I am guessing they will vote Garfooled, but we’ll see

[Zugzwang]

Magnus/Gar, of course. Do… you think I would object to the other?
Magnus isn’t trying to kill me, you’re right, but considering I ~entirely disproved their post against Gar/Me, and have somewhat disproved their individual issues with my reads, I don’t think they can really justify that.

[tutuu]

Alright well let’s see if we can get ourselves a pelt first and then bicker about it tomorrow imo

[Zugzwang]

btw why do you TR Magnus? is it sheeping consensus, or are there reasons I’ve missed? (to be clear I do TR Magnus rn but I’m starting to tinfoil a bit)

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

I should lock Magnus as town for that that’s just way out there in terms of effort, I feel like they were playing Ace Attorney - Cornered theme on repeat while writing that

I have seen this but I’d assume there’s more as you were TRing them earlier

Also I effortposted too! Can you lock me town nya nya nya

[tutuu]

The depth in which they went ham on that case just felt crazy to me if it were to come from a wolf. Like it wasn’t just words. There was passion; somewhat of an emotion. Magnus is passionate as town when pushing their reads. Magnus is very wordy as wolf too but I think more temperate, more laid-back. More “cold”

[tutuu]

@Zugzwang

TRing them earlier

Earlier I leaned them town, I digged their depth

@Zugzwang

Also I effortposted too! Can you lock me town nya nya nya

I think that the differences in your town and scum game, or … maybe not necessarily game but like. Tonality? Passion? Emotion? Demeanor? Something something - I think that difference for you is smaller between your town and scum game, when compared to Magnus. I’m more scared of you

[Zugzwang]

mmmmmmm
I’m mildly biased of course, but I got the impression that it had to look like that if it’s from w!Magnus pushing agenda. Otherwise, it would fall flat, as the arguments within are weak.

I do think the case is towny (though a lot less strongly), but mainly because it makes more sense from town and confbiased Magnus, rather than w!Magnus who thinks it would actually help with agenda or anything.

[pandora]

@Magnus

Hello, I’m dropping a bombshell. Zugzwang and Garfooled have an awful lot of partner equity.

[pandora]

@Magnus

Meanwhile, Zugzwang manages to garner some townreads, although he’s still being questioned as one would expect. Rather than trying to directly rescue or sink Garfooled, he has a pleasant conversation with them about other reads; providing an opportunity for Garfooled to elucidate and develop, conjuring doubts, all that. Zugzwang tests these boundaries by asking Rhea for their opinion; and subtly tries to shift their outlook while preparing for the worst.

hmm. this might be overcomplicated but i can’t criticize since i had a similar partner thought process earlier

[pandora]

funny but performative

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

I think that the differences in your town and scum game, or … maybe not necessarily game but like. Tonality? Passion? Emotion? Demeanor? Something something - I think that difference for you is smaller between your town and scum game, when compared to Magnus. I’m more scared of you

That difference is smaller, yes. I am quite conscious of my position in thread as town, and work to avoid looking wolfy - this often means editing posts that I think have bad tone. Most likely this also makes the tone more similar across alignments. Also, because I view getting executed as very bad, regardless of alignment, my tone is affected similarly when pushed.

That being said, there’s plenty of other ways to read me, besides tone. As mentioned earlier:

@Zugzwang

The best way to read me is my thoughts and agenda or lack thereof

[pandora]

@Zugzwang

This post was (and is) a large part of my TR on Magnus. Thinking about how they’ve narrowed down the teams occurs to an eager townie, and not a wolf. Which is why I wanted to know if Magnus was serious when writing this, because if they were, then it makes a lot more sense for T!Magnus to have this thought.

is THAT what 28 meant

[pandora]

i may be stupid

[Zugzwang]

IDK if you saw it but I’ve debunked this case

@Zugzwang

@Magnus

Meanwhile, Zugzwang manages to garner some townreads, although he’s still being questioned as one would expect. Rather than trying to directly rescue or sink Garfooled, he has a pleasant conversation with them about other reads; providing an opportunity for Garfooled to elucidate and develop, conjuring doubts, all that. Zugzwang tests these boundaries by asking Rhea for their opinion; and subtly tries to shift their outlook while preparing for the worst.

Those aren’t just “other reads”, rather, they are what made me initially suspicious of Gar. Yes, questioning someone provides an opportunity for them to be towny. This is inherent to talking to people. And conversation is also the only way to get a better read on someone.

Yes, the conversation is pleasant - I prefer to be pleasant when pushing people.

And I had no reason, as w/w with Gar, to ask Rhea that - Rhea had already stated that Gar was trending up, and the post I made:

@Zugzwang

@Leafia

I won’t lie. Right now, Tutuu and Rhea are my most confident townreads.

@Garfooled

okay leafia is town

@Garfooled

that felt like such a real thought post

Rhea what do you think about this (other than that’s it’s very unlikely w/w)? At first it looked like W!Gar TMI-ing Leafia town. I can see Gar’s justification, but upon checking and seeing Leafia hadn’t posted for over 30 minutes, there’s a lot of other angles she ignored, like it feeling somewhat frozen.

would jeopardize Gar’s position.

[tutuu]

@Zugzwang

The best way to read me is my thoughts and agenda or lack thereof

I don’t think any of your thoughts have been bad but I also didn’t think they were bad in that one wolf game of yours I saw

I can’t know for sure whether or not you’re pushing wolf agenda yet, without flips. I can only guess. I can’t trust you blindly! Or are you saying that you’ve written posts this game that you wouldn’t be able to fake as wolf?

That aside - purely for agenda - I think that there are some possible scum teams including you, but it’s too much to think about right now, the game right now has the most possible teams it can have, they will exponentially grow smaller as people die and it will get easier to solve … everything, not just you