Umineko FM: Land of the Golden Witch - Thread 1 - Days 1 & 2

I tried to look at Katze, but I’m too tired for that rn

VOTE: kimwexler

wolf

not here

i lied

i am a filthy liar

i cant sleep just yet

arctic find a singular post in your iso where you try to actually solve my alignment

all you are doing is speaking to me like you are absolutely confident i am a wolf – because you don’t know how to talk to somebody you have TMI of being a villager in any way but treating them statically, you decided arbitrarily you would treat me like a wolf and you have deviated from this at no point in the game

i hedged on you while you were here because i bit that and thought you were just like that, and it was indicative that you believed a word you were saying. something something conviction, i guess. whoops.

when i’m in the thread without you i don’t have the burden of recency bias weighing my accuracy down. it’s honestly pretty close to a repeat of the MU game where arete wolfed against me.

as the legendary YOLOSWAG once said in that game when viewing it from the outside:

long quote inside, not directly game relevant, you can skip this, one part inside is bolded that i believe holds some relevancy to why i believe arctic is a wolf

Arete/katze - The main things that makes Arete the last wolf in my eyes are 1) they’ve had more agenda-y moments than any other living slot behind possibly myself, 2) their reads have been more static and out-of-step with how a villager would react to certain game events in their shoes and 3) the JC VC where he was at 4 votes along with some other villagers and the only living slots voting him alive are katze and Arete. I’m reading the gamestate back then as having had a wolf voting JC as opposed to the wagon being pure.

Arete and JC have this early-game mutual wolfread of each other that they stick to for the entirety of D1. This is going to touch a point I raised before, that being that Arete’s confidence in JC being a wolf was out of step with how a villager would react. There were definitely problems with John’s play but there was a lot more doubt as to his alignment that was being expressed by most of the playerlist because he did have some good moments.

That’s not that big of a point though. I’m thinking more about how D2 was wolfy for Arete’s treatment of JC than D1. That D1 EOD was chaotic AF. D2 starts and John actually starts to cool on Arete being a wolf. Arete keeps up the wolf read on John and doesn’t really ever buckle on it.

The strongest point for why this is wolfy is because John was extremely villagery EOD2. He had been postcapped, got free of it, then came back in EOD2 very strong. As soon as he started posting you had people like myself, Gorf, Jpic strongly V reading him because he was going so ham in being towny that you just felt that shit off the page. The only people who kept strongly wolfreading JC at that point were tess and Arete. tess moves to vote me, but Arete starts casing John even MORE at this point. I thought this was wolfy as hell. Because John was super towny and Arete just didn’t seem to even consider that. I think as a villager there, Arete would have at least had some pause there, I’m of the opinion that they kept pushing the wolf read along out of necessity.

The next thing I’m going to point out is Arete’s treatment of the flipped wolves. You have Kaif, SK, Ephemera and mewtini. The simplest points that come to mind are that they hard V read Kaif D1 off of his wanting to policy IAAFR and kept such a strong V read that they scolded the people wagoning him.

D2 starts and they come in with a V peek on mewtini. I think the timing of how Arete treated Kaif and mewtini as V reads is suspect as hell. Imagine being in Arete’s shoes. You have an entire team who is not really trying that hard (except Ephemera, they came to play so props to them) so how the hell are you going to win this game? Guarding Kaif and adding an element of confusion by greenpeeking your bro in mewtini aligns with this. You want to keep mewtini alive because they’re the poisoner and Keith is a sinking ship.

So this is one of the bigger points for Arete being a wolf: their treatment early on in the game is the most pro-wolf and no it’s not just “lolwrong” reductive shit, it’s the mindset behind it.

Like seriously what are the odds that Arete’s strong V read D1 is a wolf and then when D2 starts their green peek is a wolf? Makes more sense that they’re just wolfing IMO. Also, I actually think it’s wolfy that Arete started D2 with a peek and that they were even thinking of cover when the phase started. As sad as that last sentence is, this village - including myself - has been hot garbage when it comes to leaving cover. Actually terrible lmao. When D2 started no one was even thinking of leaving cover, it was just villagers rushing into the thread trying to make sense of that chaotic AF EOD. So because of this mindset of like omg we have to solve EOD, all of us forgot to leave cover. It wasn’t until later in the phase and game that townies were like oh yeah, we’re supposed to do that.

What I’m saying is that all of this shit is more consistent with a wolf mindset and cognizance of the fact that villagers are supposed to leave cover. It feels bad to call Arete a wolf for playing the setup properly here, but I really do think town just shat the bed with cover early here.

Then Arete and katze have been going back and forth all game. I’ve been gut reading them as holding a wolf. I believe in my solving of the villagers above, I know I’m town, so stay with me while I try to analyze who is wolfier between the two and, more importantly, who is treating this specific Arete/katze dynamic in a wolfier way.

Like I was saying earlier, Arete has been way more static than katze has in terms of their treatment of katze than vice versa. If you pull up katze’s ISO, they go back and forth on Arete a fuckton of times. Lots of “omg Arete please don’t be wolfing I was V reading you” like sentiments. Pull the ISO and you will see, I would not be surprised if katze has made over 150 posts waffling on Arete.

If you pull up katze’s vote history, you will see that they voted Arete and has moved off a fuckton of times. Arete has voted katze twice this game.

These are actually points in katze’s favor as opposed to Arete. katze is a villager who has struggled with Arete’s alignment over the course of the game. I think the reason katze hasn’t pulled the trigger on Arete is because 1) they’ve played a really good wolf game and 2) town keeps killing other people so this hasn’t been able to be resolved.

Actually yeah, katze has voted Arete TEN fucking times this game. A couple were meme votes but a lot were “I’m going to explore this potential scum read” votes. This screams of a villager stuck on a wolf read and subconsciously circling back to it because town refuses to resolve it.

If you look at how katze and Arete have treated each other, there’s a lot of evidence showing that katze has been genuinely struggling with Arete’s alignment. I think this is also hastened by the fact that katze knows Arete from FoL and does not want to be wrong on their read.

But Arete hasn’t posted anywhere neeeeaaaar the amount of doubt that katze has presented for Arete. There are some quips here and there but it’s limp, nowhere near as much as katze. Honestly Arete hasn’t even treated katze as much of a wolf read, they’ve treated them more as a V read for most of the game. Pull the ISO and you will not see much pressuring or criticism of katze, there’s some stuff but it’s not that compelling.

I actually think katze’s treatment of Arete is quite villagery when put in the context of "this is a big game, no one has played with Arete, town is relying on you to get a strong read there."

Also, I lost to katze in Dragonvale but I want to point out a few things: I actually gut wolfread katze as a wolf there early in the game, it was after some wolf flips and real-time interacting with them that I got pocketed. I haven’t really found katze that wolfy this game, more just kind of limp and deserving of being pressured/poe’d due to being low impact. So the difference there is notable to me. Beyond that though…

I’m townreading katze’s entrance this phase. I was in the thread a couple nights ago with them when they made those posts about town having to kill them, giving up, etc. And I felt that shit. It felt pure on a gut level. Like a villager knowing they’re going to have to die and knows they can’t really stop it, I was in the thread and katze was sad af. This is more a realtime-emotion read but I feel good about it, I think I looked into their soul and saw a villager.

“but yolo Arete clapped mewtini yesterday!!!”

So the fuck what? Wolves bus in every game. Beyond that though, think of the gamestate and what a wolf would need to do to win there. First, mewtini had used up all of their poisons so there’s no need for them to be alive anymore. Second, read the gamestate: katze/myself have been universal POE for the past few phases. In spite of all the wolf lunches, the truth is that this is a very lazyass town. I would say the only one who has been playing mafia these past few phases are like katze and Ryker, Happy a little bit and then all the flipped villas who have died.

Beyond that you have most of the game spamming POE pools and V reads that don’t fucking matter and do nothing to actually solve the game in any meaningful capacity. So the wincon is to just let town keep doing this shit while they POE and sleepwalk into katze/YOLO mislunches. Once you do that, you go to F4 which is winnable with someone like C4 falling off or Gorf just being awful near endgame to frame them.

Imagine winning the game because you bused like a 30-posting wolf at the time it makes the most sense and town is so bad that they clear you for it instead of the literal 8500+ posts of readable content instead. Amazing.

If Arete is a wolf and y’all lose to them, I am asking all of the living villagers alive (besides katze, they voted Arete enough that they are absolved) to go and nominate Arete for best wolf after getting owned so hard. They will have deserved it.

What I’m trying to say is that if Arete is a wolf, busing mewtini there makes sense because anyone with game sense can tell that katze and myself are always dying here. So no, I don’t clear them off of that fucking EOD in spite of all the other shit I have written about with strong towntells on every other living player in the game.

I also want to remind you all that mistyx, JC, Wisp and Wisdom went out wolfreading Arete and to consider dead villagers’ reads here.

If you think the wolf is someone else then go and case them. I can tell you that it isn’t me. So YOLO.

If you think Arete/katze are V/V then we’re fucked and game was lost forever ago, probably on D1. My gut has screamed Arete a few times though and I’m YOLOing this shit. Good luck homies.

so, yeah, when you’re gone and i’m thinking about the game from a larger point of view, there’s really only two worlds that make sense to me

  1. i am horribly, absolutely wrong about everything, including you
  2. you are a wolf

admittedly, my intent is somewhat selfish. in both worlds you’re going to deathtunnel me blindly, and in both worlds i am probably going to get misyeeted. whatever, shit happens. i’ll probably cry about it later, i am too tired to give a shit about it rn.

the thing is – if you’re a villager you’re going to get me killed. if you’re a wolf you’re going to get me killed.

so i’m killing you first. if you’re a wolf i am absolved, i am cleared, and it’s the only world where i really don’t get misexecuted this game. so, selfishly, i hope it’s the world we live in.

the problem with that mindset is that it is making me somewhat confirmation biased that you have to be a wolf. really, the only “good” ending in a v/v world is… i let you ML me, during this time i find you unconditionally as a villager, and i leave it as my legacy.

so i tried. i tried to find that village motivation in your posts. to say that i can’t call you an unconditional villager is an understatement. so i mean, i could just stop right there and say that for the health of this game, i have to thunderdome you.

but it does go deeper than that. i flat out think you are a wolf. none of my reasons for townreading you earlier require a big gap to jump from village <> wolf motivation – and when that revelation comes forward and i take off the rose tinted glasses… the pieces fall into place. really, the only part that remains a bit unanswered is how you’re using your role, but i can’t use that to read you unless i know your exact role… so. doesn’t hold much merit.

and again, if you are a villager, then i do believe this is your fault. i don’t really like victim blaming in mafia but like, jesus christ dude. read the room. stop trying to “catch the big bad”. refer to marluxion for more advice.

but you’re not a bad player. you’re not incapable of reading players. you’re not incapable of reevaluation, or evaluation at all.

i know i’ve said a dozen times that i believe the optimal play for me today is to take a step back and let people i townread lead the day. if they decide that i am being a dumbass and to veto this, i may oblige. i, however, am proposing an alternative:

VOTE: KimWexle

kill this, or kill me.

i believe now this is the best course of action for this day phase.

if arctic is a villager, kill me ASAP.

if i die first, kill him ASAP.

resolve this.

good night.

3 Likes

tldr

hey what the fuck you used my meme and cropped out the part that identifies it as mine

:sob:

but jokes aside, Arctic is definitely a wolf and should be eliminated

ciao

2 Likes

if it makes you feel better that’s the first post this game that’s made me reconsider your alignment

i’ll think about it on my flight
it’s
something

1 Like

if you think this why are you voting gyr and not voting me

why does that make them mafia

I’ve seen this repeatedly from players of both alignments when they’re faced with players from FoL

This post means nothing.

are there any more posts like this because on its own it means nothing

overall 3/10 accusation see me after class

You guys might think I’m joking, but I’ve suspected Memes for a while now. He has tunneled Zorvo D1, so much that he didn’t vote either katze or Heisenberg during EoD, leaving his vote on Zorvo (being the only one voting him). During the second half of D1 he started to… ¿push? me and for some reason I joked about some Mason claim or something (I can’t even remember) and he assumed that I was claiming Mason (and somehow that’s the reason he stopped pushing me…).

No one took that claim seriously, only him. I responded to him being sarcasting, assuming he would understand I actually wasn’t Mason but he just continued. I seriously cannot believe he’s just that oblivious and Sheldon Cooper-ish. Now today he’s weirdly obsessed with me and conveniently doesn’t answer back when I talk to him BUT he uses my post to deform them and scumread me lmao. I don’t know if he often plays (And is, as a person) like this, but in my eyes this is suspicious as fuck. If he dies and flips 3p I wouldn’t be surprised. And, I say 3p because I can’t believe a Wolf actually thinks tunneling 2 players, 1 each day is a valid course of action.

he very much is Just Like This regardless of alignment

i personally think for multiple reasons that he’s probably just a villager

VOTE: KimWexler

god I wish I could write a wall and stop playing

@Sadbi

When you get back jump on.

Damn. That was the worst scenario I could think of. Now I’m stuck with a zealot wanting my innards scattered around the floor.

I am debating if I should have a diva moment

someone tell me not to

True divas can’t restrain themselves.