Bystander / Rhea - not much new here; Bystander doesn’t mention Rhea, and Rhea does mention their read on Bystander isn’t strong and may need a re-eval, not any more unpairing
Leafia / Magnus still viable
but while looking through that.
the ‘Good luck’ here reads wolfy to me
like, it feels like Magnus is leaving tutuu on their own to read Leafia.
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which is also unpairing from tutuu actually
I’m trying to construct a mindset where W!Magnus says ‘Good luck’ like that to a partner
and idk if there is one? like, it doesn’t feel like a natural thought to wish a partner luck there? you’re not giving them actual advice, and they can still talk to eachother at any time
half the time I find a mindset that works when I think about it with a fresh mind, but I’ll mark Magnus/Tutuu unpaired for now
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also I know Magnus tends to root for town as evil. which makes this hold up more
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What’s the motivation for w!Magnus to leave the onus for a villager to socially analyse their only teammate in this scenario, namely w!Leafia, who has a reputation for being easily read? As opposed to conjuring a made up towncase to falsely clear her.
Magnus “Good Luck” Usage
Mafia
Immediately at SOD1.
In F3.
Not actually wishing good luck, so I’m excluding this fully.
Notably, Magnus was leaving the game and about to flip here.
Town
At EOD1, as top wagon being eliminated.
Not game relevant - excluded while looking at numbers.
A few hours before EOD3, posting for the last time (presumably going to sleep, given time zones).
Shortly after game start.
In Ritual Mafia V’s dead chat, presumably a message to the living.
I’m very confused what the context here is - from what I saw of that game, Someone was town but claiming Evil? And Magnus appears to wolfread both Marshal and Bionic here. It appears this is widely wolfread people trying to coordinate a flash wagon at the last moment? And Magnus is wishing good luck to people they believe are evil?
Excluding this from the non-numerical analysis for brevity and clarity, but it does in fact fit the pattern detailed there - Magnus is leaving Someone/Bionic/Marshal to their own devices in this attempt.
Game with Conversion (Starts as town, becomes wolf)
Above post noted in explanation; also near SOD1
Near SOD1
–Magnus gets converted to evil between here
Above is not game relevant, so this is excluded while looking at numbers.
Initially, I saw the first post in the Mafia spoiler, and thought I might’ve found a hard tell, but overall uses of ‘Good luck’ are 7 town, and 5 mafia (excluding the ones that are noted as exclusions in the spoiler). If we look only at posts where Magnus is seriously addressing either townies or everyone (which is what’s most relevant here), we see 4 or 5 as town (depending on whether one counts the noted post in the Conversion game as a joke), and 4 as wolf.
So overall, this is a wolftell. But the numbers don’t really tell the full story here. Across all games, every time Magnus wishes someone good luck, one of the following is true:
- Magnus is saying ‘Good luck’ at the start of the game
- Magnus is saying it as a joke
- Magnus is in some way separated from those they are wishing good luck to
This last one is important. In most of these cases, it is Magnus leaving thread, either temporarily (sleeping / going offline / eod) or permanently (being executed). In the case of the non-game related posts, it is Magnus leaving (in some sense) the people they’re talking to:
Here, Magnus is leaving Rajidae to go to her date herself.
Here, although Magnus and Silviu will continue talking in thread, it is not about this. Magnus is leaving Silviu when it comes to helping with this game.
And it makes sense, intuitively. If you talk to someone who’s about to embark on some challenge, and then let them go on their way, yes, you would likely wish them good luck. If, on the other hand, you continue helping them, there is no need for that.
Now, consider this game.
Magnus is leaving Tutuu to his own efforts in reading Leafia. As you can see, neither Magnus nor Tutuu was leaving thread at the time of this post. If Magnus is town, then - especially since they listed Leafia as someone easy to read - they would not be leaving Tutuu to their own abilities here.
Now, I will give Magnus a more detailed review tomorrow - it pays to be thorough, and I do have some doubts. But until then, VOTE: Magnus. Good night… and good luck.
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this was not about pairing you with Leafia anymore, rather, it was an independent read.
This is such an awesome analysis for a phrasing quirk I haven’t actually noticed from myself.
In this case, I was using “good luck” as a comment unto itself. I was expecting to die Night 1, and was pushing towards that resolution, and understood that Leafia was plausibly doomed to be tinfoiled later. So in that regard, this is a valid read.
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Damn
Do you guys think I made myself too obvious? With my vig claim at start of the game
I thought that it made me look like such a VT that it would maybe make the wolves think there’s no way i’d be that obvious as VT and that i’m actually the vig. that post is way funnier if i was the vig and i like being funny so i was hoping the wolves would think that. so i was on a level 2 strategy
if they predicted that and found me as VT nonetheless that’s level 3 and then fair enough - props for their correct read. but if they just operated on level 1 that’s slightly peeving 
like imagine me trying to think multiple steps ahead only to then “congratulations, you played yourself”
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These are my initial thoughts as well. I think I was probably wrong on Bystander. She fits in with a lot of people
And I feel like Rhea is probably the only one here who’s perceptive enough to catch jail as the vig on night 1 (respectfully to everyone)
I didn’t know who’s the vig but I also paid no mind to it since it’s not my job. idk, did any of you guys try to find the vig? (as town). was jail obvious or what?
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I was dragged away by the cuff mid-sentence, so I couldn’t quite finish my sentence with the aplomb that I might have otherwise liked.
I appreciate off-the-walls creative bursts of logic, particularly when they have a reasonable foundation. It’s not only refreshing but it’s also ideal towards pursuing new insights. “Good luck” as a separation definitely sounds about right for how I utilise that phrase in my mind. There have certainly been times where I have used that phrase in particular scumchats, although the contextual use would’ve been when they were in danger rather than as an expression of faith.
Let’s pose a new distinction; a mocking or insincere “Good luck” versus a genuine “Good luck” (rather than the “joking” category).
The first Mafia quote you supplied was fabricated, but that was due to my mistaken impression that I needed to cram as much content as possible into my opener to appear towny. The second one was sincere, representative of my demeanour. The third one was specifically poking fun at Bionic, but was also addressed towards Tutuu (my teammate).
Summary
I think you recognised the mocking nature of this comment, but it was also the only “joking” comment from all of the Mafia quotes so you were specifically sidestepping the context in order to exact your conclusion when it’s the attitude that should matter.
I had no idea, although admittedly I wasn’t looking for it. Anyone who was voted yesterday and didn’t seem pressured to claim was marked off (so Pandora / Someone / Garfooled), I didn’t think Leafia or yourself were the vigilantes since you claimed…
I suppose I could have narrowed it to Jail / Zug / Rhea / Bystander if I was looking for them.
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damn zug went shaggy ultra instinct for this one
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VOTE: bystander
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It varies from person to person. Your specific claim had so much personality that I thought you were claiming Vigilante just because you could, rather than to scare the evil team. Leafia outright claimed to not be the Vigilante in a fashion that was almost baiting relatively.
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this is just such an insane post to write if you are a wolf. like imagine randing wolf and writing this. zug is probably just town or was unironically on acid if wolf
i had a temporary tinfoil that zug and magnus are both mafia and they’re motivating each other and laughing in wolf chat at writing all of these essays and dunking on us but that is probably just my emotional reaction of not wanting to get dunked on / feel embarassed / get rekt. logically zug + mag doesn’t make sense and they deserve to win (maybe?) if they’re w/w. atlhough we also have a win con obv so im not saying like we shouldnt try to catch them if they’re w/w but maybe that’s a concern for f5/f3, at least for now i think its more logical to look into rhea / gar / bystander. idk, maybe mag is mafia, zug, i still feel like they’re town but i haven’t re-evaluated after those town flips. i heavily thought pandora is mafia during the night. let me think
zug is my top townread after that, unless exactly w/w with magnus. i feel like w!zug has so much easier mischops to push than town magnus, that’s just such an unnecessary effort
pandora + rhea made so much sense to be the team why wasn’t that the team 