this is brutal
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Another thought: as far as I am aware, bystander is more experienced with shortform chat mafia, correct? With the mid-power rolesets that tend to be played in that format, identifying power roles quickly becomes a major part of the game in a way it isn’t in mountainous or in role madness. And with the high volume of games that can be played, it is possible to gain much more experience as a wolf hunting for power roles than in a longform setting where one might only play as wolf once every few months, and it also helps one improve at identifying them quickly, from only a few posts.
I can easily see bystander as the player who was able to identify jail as the Vigilante, and if you will allow me to dip into agenda for a moment, I can also easily see Garfooled reading through jail’s posts, either during the night or after his flip, order to better understand where this read came from. The connection to Garfooled is a stretch, but I do not think that either Garfooled or bystander were “too inactive” to guess jail as the Vigilante.
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My sister dragged me into playing Just Dance and my body is now properly exhausted, but my mind is firing.
I’m glad you picked up on that, Tutuu. I’ve been learning that way, actually; it could be Zug if it’s not Rhea, although the disparity in how much I suspect them is paramount — the latter is suspicious with carefully worded responses engineered to separate their current game from their wolfplay, an unwillingness to prescribe a read with any certainty whereas the latter could be a tinfoil at worst. Rhea has been posting mostly as they should were they a villager, whereas Zug has been far exceeding the expectation that would be applied to their villager alignment.
With that said, I didn’t quite want to say it because it felt so improbable, and I didn’t want to sow the seeds of doubt so early.
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I had an enlightenment earlier this game when Zug posted the Magnus!read that he was always, irreconcilably, irrefutably town.
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Can you towncase Gar in full? I’d like to see all your reasons here.
Because currently I’m seeing the main reasons as:
Yes, they may have said they were resigning themselves, but this doesn’t mean they actually were! appearing to capitulate and accepting one’s flip is a useful trick sometimes.
In ~recent memory, Achro made excellent use of this in The Cyberiad Overhaul (relevant post linked); you can read the context if you wish. There, many people (including Tutuu/Gar and Me/May, which happens to be 3/5 of us here…) were correctly tunneled on him, and focused on fighting him. By self-voting and appearing to give up, it removed our goal, forcing us to reconsider.
Now, Achro is obviously a much better wolf than everyone here, but that doesn’t mean Gar can’t use the same trick.
see above
This is false? While I wouldn’t say Gar necessarily felt uncomfortable, given the way they tend to post, I also do not believe they felt comfortable.
Naturally, if Gar was making an attempt not to die, they would attempt to look solvy. Especially as they believed they would be likely vigged otherwise.
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the thing is I’m not as sure on Gar anymore
like, “if you were to be town” does have the same meaning… sort of? I was pondering this and I can kinda see myself using it
It might be that the “to be” makes it a much more uncommon clause, weakening the instincts that go with that
plus like. “if you are to be town” doesn’t work. only “if you were to be town” does. so if the “to be” came to mind then it kinda forces the “were”
and Bystander isn’t me
like, I certainly have ungrammatical quirks
so they could have this one
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but also this
Magnus not tinfoiling Gar here, and saying it’s me if not Rhea
but then also professing complete confidence on their read on me
and I had noticed, though not found it significant, that Bystander / Magnus continued to scruff at eachother in thread D2
if Bystander is wolf who saw people unpairing them
why are they continuing this*
*there’s a decent reason, being that Bystander is genuinely annoyed at Magnus. which is why I didn’t think it too notable at first. but it is strange
if this were me some months ago
I might trustfall Magnus on Gar
and just lock Gar as town
but I’ve seen that go wrong too many times
most recently in the KRC, where some people were extremely convinced Player-2 was town, until literal 1-wolf LYLO
and also it would’ve gone very wrong in Combinatorics Mafia
where I asked Kii if I could lock Guava as town, if he is town
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and the thing is Magnus should play like this as wolf! this is the optimal strategy for them! Get Rhea misexed, kill Tutuu, and then have Gar and I misvote eachother. And pushing me over Gar is better, because if we are reluctant to vote and Magnus votes me - Gar most likely votes me too. Whereas, while I do think Gar is wolf, I’m also way more unpredictable. and Magnus has noted they’ve underestimated me.
A moment
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I had this thought that i didnt wanna say out loud until my legacy post at eod - if magnus is the wolf, they are boxing themselves in. Theyre townreading everybody but Rhea, and their analysis of potential wolf in tutuu / zug / gar is very safe / pacifist. Depending on the way the day would have went i would have left a legacy to chop mag in f3 in case we mischopped town Rhea today, pending my analysis of magnus’ behavior, because thats the way to counter their wolf strategy. As it relies on a defensive combat stance / not stepping on anybody’s toes
I feel obligated to reveal this now because if I were to just hint at it and deflect answering you it probably outs it anyway
Reading over your posts doesnt necessarily make me tinfoil trusting mag’s alignment, i still think theyre town, but i should reconsider trusting their townread on Gar
Zug and Rhea can’t be w/w. Both of them have Gar as their top scumread. At least one of these is guaranteed to come from town. So i should consider it
I just wrote something and deleted it. It’s related to Gar. I think I can probably squeeze out some win equity here by not revealing it, at least not immediately. I will elaborate more before EoD
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Garfooled is a menace to towncase because it’s been a very intuitive picture throughout all our games together so I’d actually need to wrack my head in order to explain it thoroughly. My starting hypothesis to Zug’s question in a pitiful hope to avoid towncasing Garfooled right away is that this post could be arguably polarised for v!Garfooled per using Hazbin Hotel as decisive evidence. For a demonstrative record of this game, it was a scenario where Bystander was widely the most townread member of the 4-person purgatory scumteam; and none of her other teammates were given so much as the time of day.
We can ascribe Bystander’s suspicions in that game as falling into one of two classes; “supported”, which are reads that Bystander actively argued as if she believed in them; and “unsupported”, where she brushed aside a quick comment about townreading or not townreading someone. As we established earlier in this game, the former had more prevalence in Bystander’s wolfgame compared to the sample towngame, I don’t actively remember which game I used.
Supported reads included Leafia (Ambivalent TR), Tutuu (Ambivalent Scumread → #909)
Unsupported reads included Bionic (TR), Someone (Pocket), Catbae (TR), Eliza (TR)
Bystander had a random back and forth with Hippo discussing Leafia without forming a concise opinion on him, despite Hippo scumreading Bystander in public. Nonetheless, this manifested in Bystander randomly calling out Hippo as Mafia paired with Eliza (#451) in a very similar fashion to the Rhea / Garfooled callout earlier this game.
The Tutuu scumread throws my model out of whack because it’s nigh similar to the Garfooled suspicion quote pictured above circa 2024 colourised, but this was over a hundred posts into Bystander’s ISO so they aren’t quite comparable; especially given how this was originally utilised to manage theatre with Hippo, and then afterwards…
These games are actually incomparable. At best we know Bystander didn’t like to question her teammates as suspicious right away, and only did so in the pursuit of conforming to a mould. The most rigorously detailed or doubted reads came from analysing only villagers. So as an example following this model, Tutuu could be spewed town at (#166) → #854) and later, and myself even more so immediately afterwards. This was not my intention.
This was made up, although to which purpose it’s unclear. Bystander asked about the spreadsheets and immediately formed a conclusion independent of the answer.
Result: Bystander’s ISO doesn’t help in regards to sorting Garfooled. Eh.
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Recent? I haven’t played classic Mafia as Town since last year.
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Dutiful reminder that I initiated the wagon against Bystander yesterday.
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This needs further explanation from all of your points. I’m equating comfort with Garfooled’s expressed lack of panic or impending doom despite the Damocles sword hanging over their head.
The Achromatic example doesn’t quite apply to Garfooled’s current scenario despite being textbook, because he used it as an active bait. Garfooled did not bait their execution, they just didn’t fight it. The situations aren’t really comparable because they aren’t the same scenario.