The Amazing Digital Circus Vigilante ten-er - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[Magnus]

This would go crazy for tracking FAM4 statistics postgame.

[Zugzwang]

oh wait nevermind don’t use this one
I have used the old version by accident with a bug (it counted votes in quotes)
accurate one soon

[Garfooled]

i have a guardian angel
they won’t stab me in final 3 will they?

[Magnus]

No, what will happen is the other person will vote you first because they all think you could be evil and then I’ll win by doing nothing.

This is a joke.

[Zugzwang]

accurate version (do not use old)

All votes

The-Showrunners voted unvote in post 1
tutuu voted Garfooled in post 83
tutuu voted unvote in post 92
Leafia voted Garfooled in post 136
pandora voted Garfooled in post 148
Rhea voted jail in post 266
jail voted Rhea in post 292
jail voted unvote in post 306
jail voted unvote in post 307
Leafia voted jail in post 322
Zugzwang voted Garfooled in post 403
Leafia voted Garfooled in post 466
Rhea voted Someone in post 479
tutuu voted Someone in post 481
Zugzwang voted unvote in post 516
Someone voted Garfooled in post 555
Magnus voted pandora in post 557
jail voted Someone in post 587
Leafia voted pandora in post 588
jail voted pandora in post 589
jail voted unvote in post 615
Leafia voted Someone in post 642
jail voted Someone in post 709
Magnus voted Rhea in post 748
Zugzwang voted Magnus in post 766
tutuu voted bystander in post 775
Zugzwang voted unvote in post 848
tutuu voted unvote in post 863
tutuu voted Rhea in post 867
Leafia voted bystander in post 886
Leafia voted Magnus in post 908
Magnus voted bystander in post 918
tutuu voted bystander in post 922
Leafia voted bystander in post 925
Magnus voted unvote in post 929
Zugzwang voted bystander in post 960

Zug

Zugzwang voted Garfooled in post 403
Zugzwang voted unvote in post 516
Zugzwang voted Magnus in post 766
Zugzwang voted unvote in post 848
Zugzwang voted bystander in post 960

Gar (empty)

no votes

tutuu

tutuu voted Garfooled in post 83
tutuu voted unvote in post 92
tutuu voted Someone in post 481
tutuu voted bystander in post 775
tutuu voted unvote in post 863
tutuu voted Rhea in post 867
tutuu voted bystander in post 922

Magnus

Magnus voted pandora in post 557
Magnus voted Rhea in post 748
Magnus voted bystander in post 918
Magnus voted unvote in post 929

Rhea

Rhea voted jail in post 266
Rhea voted Someone in post 479

actually this one is the same except for my votes (the bug happens only if you quote with the quote button which is why it doesn’t show up most of the time)

[tutuu]

in my simple smol brain using short simple words:

magnus post lot. good
zug post lot. good
gar no post. bys give up cry. gar give up cry?
rhea evil vampire lady. strong mighty stompy. not post lot. likes torture

VOTE: Rhea

[Garfooled]

@tutuu

gar give up cry?

HAHAHAHAHAHA

[Garfooled]

ok i cannot for the life of me tinfoil tutuu anymore

[Magnus]

Does this program track the votes as made in player ISOs, or does it track the updates to the vote count? How does it handle typos or autocorrections?

[Zugzwang]

votes as made in ISOs

it supports substring votes, as does the VC bot here. if a vote is a substring of more than one name, it doesn’t resolve it (unlike our bot), allowing for manual correction (or to allow viewing when people do meme votes like single letters - the point isn’t to get a votecount but to analyze, which is why I made this choice)

you can also manually add aliases - if I wanted “Arcy” to register as “Arctic”, I can make it do that, which allows fixing typos

it does not look at host autocorrections; only [vote] and [unvote] tags

[Zugzwang]

alignments have to be manually set

oh also the version with the bugfix (that I really need to push…) has a GUI instead of just the terminal

[Zugzwang]

[Zugzwang]

oh and currently I believe it takes the last vote in a post with multiple? I should change it to support multi-voting since botc uses that

[Rhea]

Hello, everybody. It is quite late for me, so I will not be here long, but I wanted to check in before I head to sleep.

@Zugzwang

mmmmmmmmmmm

@Zugzwang

actually that fits

Pausing to consider whether the nightkill was odd is towny. Wolves usually come in with a reaction pre-determined. This pause would be something Zugzwang would have to go out of his way to fake. It is not impossibly by any means, but it is still an extra step.

@tutuu

Oh. I anticipated being the night kill. Fmpov I was the consensus top townread. My first thought is that Leafia died over me because I’m being pocketed by a player I’ve been shielding. Maybe Magnus since Leafia was screaming to kill them yesterday. Maybe Zug

My second thought is to ask myself if I’m being too egotistical being confident that I was gonna die. Am I overestimating my importance? Maybe others don’t perceive me as highly as I do myself? Like - a consensus townread player isn’t necessarily the same as the biggest threat to mafia

My third thought is to consider if I’m being too harsh / critical of myself. Thinking that I’m more useless than I really am. I don’t think I’m useless. I got fooled by bystander at times but I contributed to her getting chopped. I had a bunch of right townreads. At the very least I think I’ve been fine

So let me disregard all of this actually and just do my best to solve

This post is also towny, for much the same reason Zugzwang’s is. There is a set of meandering conclusions that one has to think on for some time, and all in four minutes. A wolf might prewrite this post, but they also would be more careful about looking prewritten.

@Zugzwang

gar IMO (post soon)

I agre.

@Zugzwang

oh. mmmmmmmmmmmm
overnight (and maybe during the end of the last day? idrm) I had been thinking about this post from Bystander
…except I was misremembering it as “if you were town” and not “if you were to be town” (noticed as of this post)

I think it’d be pretty damning if it were “if you were town”.
like. if I am fairly confident someone’s a wolf, but I don’t know that - I might say “if you are town, you should X”.

and in general. “if you are ” is used when you don’t know for certain, while “if you were ” is used only when you know it’s not the case. and realistically Bystander is never faking this - that’s way too much effort for this one thing that 99% of the time no one notices, and they haven’t put similar effort into the rest of the game.

now. I’m not sure if it’s quite as exclusive when it’s phrased like this
my gut says it’s the same but. mmmmmmmmmmmmm

These are the same thing, are they not?

@tutuu

this could lead to magnus mafia. but then we collectively agreed magnus/bystander unlikely w/w. so i’ll need to revisit that

I will note that Magnus deliberately went out of their way to avoid killing players that suspected them in the game we played together. They could be intentionally breaking that meta in order to misdirect, and I do not think this fact is too damning one way or another, but it is something to keep in mind.

@tutuu

not sure why gar kills leafia. maybe checked out of the game and just doesn’t care too much about who dies? bystander also seemingly gave up

Garfooled is friends with you, no? I wonder if that could influence a potential kill.

@Zugzwang

I also realized, if Gar is a townie pressed for time… why is she reading through the vig ISO
this is a minor point in comparison but notable

Pushing a player as obvious vigilante is also a way to look observant without contributing. I agree that this is odd. Not so odd that I noticed it on a first read-through, and not so odd that it is damning, but it contributes to a case.

@tutuu

she is also 15 and a lot of native english speakers, much older, still make grammatical errors all the time.

Is she really fifteen?

@Magnus

This is very wrong.

I like this reaction to the nightkill as well. Being immediately thrown off is understandable. I was not thrown off; Leafia was exactly the kill I expected before I checked the thread, as she was a more difficult tinfoil than tutuu, but not everybody thinks in the same way I do.

@Magnus

I was expecting Tutuu to die as well. It seemed like the obvious nightkill but I was vaguely hoping otherwise so I didn’t say it, but it was in the sort of way where everyone else was also holding their breath.

Leafia was obviously town so that’s fine.
I’m willing to hardshield Garfooled forever.

Hard shielding Garfooled is against wolf win condition here, though I do not think that is too material, given how strong and transparent the consensus against that slot was. w!Magnus would be in enough of a corner to warrant this behavior.

@Magnus

Uhh… Tutuu is still town, I don’t care about paranoia. I absolutely would’ve killed Leafia over Tutuu if I were evil, that critically fits my MO because then I could justify staying alive to F3, but I’m not evil.

@Magnus

Leafia didn’t feel like the optimal kill as my initial impulse, but realistically she had a lower chance to be executed compared to most others in the game so it actually made sense.

Mechanically I think we sorta have to consider Rhea because there’s no chance we let them endgame and they’re an easy player to sort before we start tinfoiling.

This is also reasonable.

@Magnus

I earnestly believe Garfooled is town. I could be mistaken on this but I’m not seeing anythIng actually incriminating from Garfooled, just “they could be evil I guess”.

I do not believe this is how a wolf attempting to look like they are acting pro-town (i.e. removing misexecutions from the pool) would phrase this. I think a wolf would be more authoritative and attempt to appear more confident and pull actual quotations, to avoid accusations of white-knighting.

@Magnus

1. If Garfooled skimmed Jail, Bystander and Tutuu’s ISO, and caught Rhea’s responses, this suggests Gar did not merely consider the voting tables at the time.
2. Reviewing Jail’s ISO for Vigilante softs or tells after their death (so with the assurance of certainty) when compared to vigorously analysing other active slots really doesn’t require extensive resources or time.

These points also directly contradict each other, since a Garfooled paying attention would’ve known Tutuu was townread, and a Garfooled paying less attention wouldn’t have found the vigilante. Either way, a strategic Leafia kill or a hopeful Jail kill could’ve happened, but not both.

This is more in line with what I would expect from a w!Magnus, but it is still not the most high-effort defense in the world.

@Zugzwang

ok “were to be” does indeed have the same meaning of it being impossible / unlikely
the “to be” does not change anything

This is what I thought.

@tutuu

this seems like quite a hard push on another player, this was at the start of the game and one of bys’ first posts. it sticks out a bit, the intensity of this push, compared to her previous and future posts

I think the confidence and intensity of this post indicates that it could have been based on TMI.

@tutuu

this doesn’t read as w/w to me (the post is a reply to a zug post). the question marks make it tonally sound like begging to me. when i read this post i imagine a puppy begging “leave me alone”

I agree. bystander seems to think Zugzwang is bringing up stupid reasons to suspect her, and

@tutuu

zug can you use your bot to pull a vote history or did we outlaw that? if its allowed - could you pull rhea’s vote history? iirc she always entertained the idea of bys wolf but never voted her. actually rhea doesn’t have that many posts i can check myself

I did not vote bystander. I suggested her as a potential vote on Day 1, but pursued Someone, because I was worried my wolfread on bystander was based more on frustration than on substance. (I apologize for that frustration if she really is fifteen.) By Day 2, it was entirely unnecessary to vote bystander, as she was already an uncontested top wagon.

@Magnus

Bystander randomly conjures up a scumread on Rhea out of thin air, this is the only time Bystander speaks that name. Rhea doesn’t confront the lacklustre read, not even to distance or to call it hollow like a fruit skin without substance. I can understand why Bystander would leave such a comment; but I do not understand why Rhea wouldn’t have acknowledged it, never even remaining confident in Bystander flipping evil.

I did note the lackluster read. I will find the quotation in a bit. I found it lazy.

@Magnus

Why wouldn’t an evil recognise their teammate’s doom and hammer, incriminate or sink them for credit after the Vigilante’s demise? Why wouldn’t you expect an evil to do that, and therefore feel inclined to trust someone whom doesn’t take that opportunity?

I was going to bring that up myself. I am glad I do not have to, as I look like a hypocrite bringing up points in my own defense while ignoring others when they do the same.

@tutuu

in my simple smol brain using short simple words:

magnus post lot. good
zug post lot. good
gar no post. bys give up cry. gar give up cry?
rhea evil vampire lady. strong mighty stompy. not post lot. likes torture

VOTE: Rhea

I would prefer somewhat if you elaborated.

[Zugzwang]

@Magnus

1. Reviewing Jail’s ISO for Vigilante softs or tells after their death (so with the assurance of certainty) when compared to vigorously analysing other active slots really doesn’t require extensive resources or time.

@Magnus

• If Garfooled skimmed Jail, Bystander and Tutuu’s ISO, and caught Rhea’s responses, this suggests Gar did not merely consider the voting tables at the time.

Gar made 8 posts in the span of 48 hours.
as you said, skimming the ISO of a flipped vig doesn’t take much time.
and as wolf, skimming Bys/Tutuu also doesn’t take much time since you don’t have to solve.

Also, catching Rhea’s response was an afterthought that might not have happened - they may have forgotten about the unpairing or thought it wasn’t as important as Leafia’s vote.

so given the above, I do not think w!Gar put a lot of time into the nightkill.

@Magnus

These points also directly contradict each other, since a Garfooled paying attention would’ve known Tutuu was townread, and a Garfooled paying less attention wouldn’t have found the vigilante. Either way, a strategic Leafia kill or a hopeful Jail kill could’ve happened, but not both.

above shows why Gar doesn’t need to have put a lot of time into the Leafia kill
but also it’s possible Bystander was the one who found the vig (though I’m not too sure on that because Bys was also not super active)

[Rhea]

@Rhea

bystander taking the easier route of pairing me and Garfooled is something I find wolfy, but I struggle to determine what I would see from a t!bystander that would help me more strongly townread her.

@Magnus I specifically noted the lackluster read here.

In particular, I think such an easy-to-make read is much more likely to come from a wolf in bystander’s position if it contains one of her partners. Such a low-effort read is not going to be something that bystander should expect to improve her own position, so why post it at all? She certainly followed the principle of “if you don’t have anything towny to say, don’t say anything at all” toward the end of the day. It would make much more sense if it was intended to improve her partner’s position.

Of course, it could also be that bystander wanted to make a nominal effort before she discovered how doomed she was. I do not discount that possibility. However, at the moment, I think that Garfooled is by far the most likely remaining wolf. I can make a more thorough case in a moment.

I briefly considered that her post regarding every game ended up the same was too genuine to come from a wolf, but looking back, it really was not. It could simply have been borrowed emotion from a previous game as town.

[Zugzwang]

@Rhea

These are the same thing, are they not?

from the grammar page I pulled yeah
but from my gut feeling “if you were X” was something you would only ever say if it was false
whereas “if you were to be” had that feeling but not as strongly

[tutuu]

@Rhea

Is she really fifteen?

Did you think she’s not from the way she acts?

@Rhea

I would prefer somewhat if you elaborated.

I’m planning on voting either you or Gar. Magnus hard defending Gar is influencing me to vote you. I’m waiting for Zug’s input, and Gar’s too. And yours too ofc

[Garfooled]

get on discord por favor

[Zugzwang]

@Rhea

I agree. bystander seems to think Zugzwang is bringing up stupid reasons to suspect her, and

and what