but also this
Magnus not tinfoiling Gar here, and saying it’s me if not Rhea
but then also professing complete confidence on their read on me
and I had noticed, though not found it significant, that Bystander / Magnus continued to scruff at eachother in thread D2
if Bystander is wolf who saw people unpairing them
why are they continuing this*
*there’s a decent reason, being that Bystander is genuinely annoyed at Magnus. which is why I didn’t think it too notable at first. but it is strange
if this were me some months ago
I might trustfall Magnus on Gar
and just lock Gar as town
but I’ve seen that go wrong too many times
most recently in the KRC, where some people were extremely convinced Player-2 was town, until literal 1-wolf LYLO
and also it would’ve gone very wrong in Combinatorics Mafia
where I asked Kii if I could lock Guava as town, if he is town
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and the thing is Magnus should play like this as wolf! this is the optimal strategy for them! Get Rhea misexed, kill Tutuu, and then have Gar and I misvote eachother. And pushing me over Gar is better, because if we are reluctant to vote and Magnus votes me - Gar most likely votes me too. Whereas, while I do think Gar is wolf, I’m also way more unpredictable. and Magnus has noted they’ve underestimated me.
A moment
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I had this thought that i didnt wanna say out loud until my legacy post at eod - if magnus is the wolf, they are boxing themselves in. Theyre townreading everybody but Rhea, and their analysis of potential wolf in tutuu / zug / gar is very safe / pacifist. Depending on the way the day would have went i would have left a legacy to chop mag in f3 in case we mischopped town Rhea today, pending my analysis of magnus’ behavior, because thats the way to counter their wolf strategy. As it relies on a defensive combat stance / not stepping on anybody’s toes
I feel obligated to reveal this now because if I were to just hint at it and deflect answering you it probably outs it anyway
Reading over your posts doesnt necessarily make me tinfoil trusting mag’s alignment, i still think theyre town, but i should reconsider trusting their townread on Gar
Zug and Rhea can’t be w/w. Both of them have Gar as their top scumread. At least one of these is guaranteed to come from town. So i should consider it
I just wrote something and deleted it. It’s related to Gar. I think I can probably squeeze out some win equity here by not revealing it, at least not immediately. I will elaborate more before EoD
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Garfooled is a menace to towncase because it’s been a very intuitive picture throughout all our games together so I’d actually need to wrack my head in order to explain it thoroughly. My starting hypothesis to Zug’s question in a pitiful hope to avoid towncasing Garfooled right away is that this post could be arguably polarised for v!Garfooled per using Hazbin Hotel as decisive evidence. For a demonstrative record of this game, it was a scenario where Bystander was widely the most townread member of the 4-person purgatory scumteam; and none of her other teammates were given so much as the time of day.
We can ascribe Bystander’s suspicions in that game as falling into one of two classes; “supported”, which are reads that Bystander actively argued as if she believed in them; and “unsupported”, where she brushed aside a quick comment about townreading or not townreading someone. As we established earlier in this game, the former had more prevalence in Bystander’s wolfgame compared to the sample towngame, I don’t actively remember which game I used.
Supported reads included Leafia (Ambivalent TR), Tutuu (Ambivalent Scumread → #909)
Unsupported reads included Bionic (TR), Someone (Pocket), Catbae (TR), Eliza (TR)
Bystander had a random back and forth with Hippo discussing Leafia without forming a concise opinion on him, despite Hippo scumreading Bystander in public. Nonetheless, this manifested in Bystander randomly calling out Hippo as Mafia paired with Eliza (#451) in a very similar fashion to the Rhea / Garfooled callout earlier this game.
The Tutuu scumread throws my model out of whack because it’s nigh similar to the Garfooled suspicion quote pictured above circa 2024 colourised, but this was over a hundred posts into Bystander’s ISO so they aren’t quite comparable; especially given how this was originally utilised to manage theatre with Hippo, and then afterwards…
These games are actually incomparable. At best we know Bystander didn’t like to question her teammates as suspicious right away, and only did so in the pursuit of conforming to a mould. The most rigorously detailed or doubted reads came from analysing only villagers. So as an example following this model, Tutuu could be spewed town at (#166) → #854) and later, and myself even more so immediately afterwards. This was not my intention.
This was made up, although to which purpose it’s unclear. Bystander asked about the spreadsheets and immediately formed a conclusion independent of the answer.
Result: Bystander’s ISO doesn’t help in regards to sorting Garfooled. Eh.
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Recent? I haven’t played classic Mafia as Town since last year.
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Dutiful reminder that I initiated the wagon against Bystander yesterday.
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This needs further explanation from all of your points. I’m equating comfort with Garfooled’s expressed lack of panic or impending doom despite the Damocles sword hanging over their head.
The Achromatic example doesn’t quite apply to Garfooled’s current scenario despite being textbook, because he used it as an active bait. Garfooled did not bait their execution, they just didn’t fight it. The situations aren’t really comparable because they aren’t the same scenario.
I don’t enjoy compelling players to sheep my reads, at least not at early junctures of the game. I’ve been hurt more from doubting correct reads when aspirations were cast onto them later in the game than from forming a wrong trust fall.
v!Garfooled is way more stressed and far less vocal than w!Garfooled ever is in this scenario.
Please do so.
Meta - and only off of one game - surely is not enough to dismiss Bystander’s ISO. Also, given that you weren’t in this game, and the different structure of that game compared to traditional mafia, why do you choose it as opposed to other games with w!Bystander?
Then all times you’ve gotten N1ed
this is true, yeah (though to be fair Leafia had just voted you, and called you paired with Bys… which actually lines up with the nk too)
I was looking at comfort in the lens of individual posts. I’ll have to check Splatfest to see if they gave off that impression while being voted.
Achro was pretending to resign. Garfooled, if wolf, was likely pretending to resign. They are nearly the same scenario.
Is this a genuine question? I don’t think there are any other applicable games.
Nightmare Woods (2022, hydra’d with May. Doesn’t really count.)
Ritual Mafia V (this year, I actually lied. I forgot about this one.)
I usually tend to die N2 more often, as it turns out.
oh at the time I had thought she was wolf in Baldur’s gate
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so
given this isn’t often
why should you be so confident you’d get N1ed here, even if no one registered as scary?
Leafia was the only player who called me paired with Bystander. Kill Rhea that day, kill Leafia that night, bus Bystander or hardaccuse someone else in XELO, profit.
This is a misrepresentation. Achro used it as an opportunity to mess around afterwards as an outed anti-town slot, Garfooled just didn’t acknowledge the execution as a threat.