The Amazing Digital Circus Vigilante ten-er - GAME OVER, MAFIA WIN

[Zugzwang]

@Rhea

I don’t think it is difficult to fake. It could easily be a retroactive explanation to a contradiction. It took Garfooled three minutes to think up this post.

I was referring to this:

@Garfooled

Is like you’re thinking from my point of view even

[tutuu]

@Zugzwang

Bystander used wording that implied they knew T!Gar was a wolf (W!Magnus, W!Rhea)

Why is this weird? If this is the case isnt it just a good play on Bystander’s part to frame Gar? Unless you think Bystander would have done such a play on accident only?

[tutuu]

@Zugzwang

Leafia died, despite there being much better kills for w!Rhea*, who would clearly put a lot of thought into the nightkill. (W!Rhea)

It’s possible W!Rhea tried to frame Magnus with the Leafia kill. Also Rhea had Leafia as a top townread. It’s possible she was honest about her evaluation of how towny each town is. I agree with the rest of your suggestions that those are weird events

[tutuu]

I dont think I can come up with any other weird events I haven’t been collecting them

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

Why is this weird? If this is the case isnt it just a good play on Bystander’s part to frame Gar? Unless you think Bystander would have done such a play on accident only?

it’d be good play*
but I’d think it takes a lot of effort to convincingly fake a wording quirk like that?
and I think if Bys was putting that kind of effort in, they’d probably also put effort to make their push on Gar look less bad

*saying something like that makes them more likely to get eliminated themselves
so maybe it wouldn’t be good

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

It’s possible W!Rhea tried to frame Magnus with the Leafia kill.

I mean
yeah this is probably how it has to be with W!Rhea.

I think that’s a strange event though, because w!Rhea needs to survive today, and realistically, a Leafia kill fails at that.

Why killing Leafia gets Rhea voted

• Killing Leafia ~locks Magnus’ vote onto her:

@Magnus

I’m town, I know you’re town because your thoughts cohesively register a shared confidence in winning the game and mesh well with mine, I know Garfooled is town for aforementioned reasons, I know Zug is town now because his tonal disparity was explained and he’s hitting particular high notes that I didn’t see in his wolf game. I’m confident in this build.

I’m either misclearing Leafia or it’s exactly Rhea and Bystander.

• Killing Leafia ~locks Gar’s vote onto her:
  –Realistically, Rhea would never be able to kill one of Magnus/Tutuu/Me today, so they would have to be pushing Gar. Which means Gar’s vote would be in self-pres on Rhea (or in an active scumread).

So, to avoid dying today, she would need both of us (Tutuu/Me) to misvote Gar - but that is a pretty hard ask, especially when I made this yesterday:

@Zugzwang

…

Garfooled / Bystander is more realistic; the distancing at the beginning, without any votes, makes sense for wolf partners
In this world their strategy is to distance but not actually get each other killed
The only awkward thing about this world is they manage to hit the vig despite neither of them having a ton of time, nor either of them being likely vig candidates (imo)

---

Rhea / Bystander I like a lot
Overall, there’s the idea of distancing without killing, and then today Rhea hopes to subtlety save Bystander.
Rhea has Bystander at the bottom of their reads list for the whole game, but doesn’t vote them at EOD1, when it would’ve been pretty reasonable to make that case. They also don’t challenge other people’s reasons to TR Bystander D1, which makes sense if in reality they want people to TR them.

…

in which I felt the most likely partner for Bystander was Rhea.

Whereas, killing you (Tutuu) works a lot better.

Why killing Tutuu is better

@Magnus

I’m town, I know you’re town because your thoughts cohesively register a shared confidence in winning the game and mesh well with mine, I know Garfooled is town for aforementioned reasons, I know Zug is town now because his tonal disparity was explained and he’s hitting particular high notes that I didn’t see in his wolf game. I’m confident in this build.

I’m either misclearing Leafia or it’s exactly Rhea and Bystander.

Although Magnus thinks it’s Rhea, there’s more room for tinfoiling Leafia.

More importantly, though, is Leafia’s vote:

@Leafia

@Magnus

I think the obvious solution is to kill Rhea, and if they flip town you kill Leafia because of the theoretical Magnus / Leafia world?

Gar could be a sicko but I’m not reading that.

The more I think of this post and

@Magnus

I’m either misclearing Leafia or it’s exactly Rhea and Bystander.

This sentence, the more I feel like the first one TMIs me town because you don’t suggest killing someone that you believe is a villager to prove that you aren’t paired with them and the second one feels like trying to set up a future misexe when the first person flips town.

VOTE: Magnus

I should know. I utilized the same strategy myself in my first game on the old site. Insurgency was the game in question and I was a wolf. I think Magnus pretty much spews me v if he flips wolf from this too. Note he didn’t suggest flipping either Bystander or Rhea. He specifically suggested flipping Rhea, which reads to me of Magnus and Bystander possibly being paired.

@Leafia

VOTE: Bystander

Keeping Magnus in mind too.

Which would most likely end on Magnus. Note also, that Leafia townread Rhea:

D1:

@Leafia

I won’t lie. Right now, Tutuu and Rhea are my most confident townreads.

D2:

@Leafia

I’m townreading Rhea currently, so on the two, I’d rather see Bystander voted off. VOTE: Bystander

So, not only would Leafia likely misvote Magnus, but they would be very unlikely to vote Rhea (and may even take part in their defense).

And Gar’s vote would also, unlike with a Leafia kill, not necessarily be on Rhea, because Rhea would have the freedom to push Magnus. This would make Gar’s vote not be locked in self-pres on Rhea, unlike in the world where Leafia dies.

@tutuu

Also Rhea had Leafia as a top townread. It’s possible she was honest about her evaluation of how towny each town is.

I don’t feel Rhea would kill according to who she found towniest - if she’s wolf, she’s demonstrated the ability to swing around her reads on a whim. So, what matters is not what she believes, but what everyone else believes, and where everyone else is likely to vote. And, as shown above, killing Leafia leaves everyone likely to vote her.

[Zugzwang]

also btw I tried to make this one more clear

I’ve realized I have a tendency to think a thought and a conclusion based on it, but then not state my conclusion up front (which to me I don’t notice as being unclear, because I already know it)
so I tried to fix that there

---

also after writing this I am way more convinced
I hadn’t remembered Leafia’s townread on Rhea earlier
so now honestly this kill just looks like throwing for w!Rhea

[tutuu]

Well are we sure Rhea is the chop?

You started off by wanting Gar (and still do? not sure)

I was torn between the two

[tutuu]

@Zugzwang

I hadn’t remembered Leafia’s townread on Rhea earlier

Oh wait she did? I also didnt remember

[tutuu]

UNVOTE

I’m not locked in on Rhea. We still have a little more than 24 hours

[tutuu]

Gar and Rhea will probably crossvote. Zug will probably vote Gar and Mag will vote Rhea. Do i need to be the deciding vote? Fuck my life

[Zugzwang]

@tutuu

You started off by wanting Gar (and still do? not sure)

Rhea couldn’t have predicted that I’d have changed my reads in this way overnight - while yes it’s possible, it’s more likely that I would start the day inclined to vote Rhea.

Also,

@tutuu

Well are we sure Rhea is the chop?

Though we aren’t, Magnus and Gar are still pretty set on her.

---

@tutuu

You started off by wanting Gar (and still do? not sure)

My gut instinct right now says it’s Magnus, but my gut has said it’s Magnus, Rhea, and Gar, each at different times. Logically I’m not sure yet (hence why I’m not voting).

[tutuu]

Oh Magnus

[Zugzwang]

@Zugzwang

My gut instinct

(my gut is filled with recency bias. and also pasta)

[tutuu]

Mmmmm rub your belly for me

[Magnus]

The execution order which Zug seems to be implicitly proposing is Magnus + Garfooled in either order, which I fundamentally disagree with because it loses the game 9/10 times. Garfooled is suspected as mere low-hanging fruit whereas I’m only drawing heat now as the standard perpetual tinfoil slot, not from any given evidence to believe I am any more likely to be evil than other slots.

Zug’s acknowledgement that Rhea would have little reason to kill Leafia outside of a frame attempt has an awfully sound texture, and yet nonetheless I have better reason to townread everyone else. Rhea hasn’t been all that defensive or premeditative which doesn’t fit the picture of a framer, actually. At this point I’m only clinging to Rhea because suspecting anyone else feels uncharitable (in regards to specifically Zugzwang given the level of delicacy in his readlists and analysis) or else blatantly incorrect.

I, for one, already know what the F3 will be if Rhea happens to die today and flips town. I’ve already made my conclusion apparent for such a scenario even though it seems to go against what everyone else is saying. Garfooled isn’t preparing for the risk of such an inevitability which they’d need to do if they were evil. None of this matters because I’m always misexecuted in F3, and we can’t kill somebody else now because then Rhea practically has to die in all eventualities anyway.

These circumstances are terrible.

[Magnus]

@Zugzwang

and I had noticed, though not found it significant, that Bystander / Magnus continued to scruff at eachother in thread D2
if Bystander is wolf who saw people unpairing them
why are they continuing this*

*there’s a decent reason, being that Bystander is genuinely annoyed at Magnus. which is why I didn’t think it too notable at first. but it is strange

If Bystander is evil who has also been unpaired with somebody else, continuing to challenge them or dropping the argumentative tone either way has no bearing on whether the read would withhold.

[tutuu]

Damn im scared now i thought we were breezing but you guys are getting freaked out and its freaking me out too now

[Magnus]

The only reason to panic would be if you weren’t at all confident in w!Rhea and anticipated a final three. Bystander was relatively obvious after Pandora’s death, so you could argue there was a false sense of security even after Jail’s demise.

[tutuu]

Whats the problem with chop Rhea → chop Gar? Doesnt this satisfy at least partially everybody?