Gar I initally townread, and just wanted to go through Splatfest to see whether they can fake that stuff*
but now I’m unsure
because when you think about it. W!Gar would have the same thought of “oh I might just get shot by the vig, so it doesn’t really matter if I don’t get exed here”. And realizing that this thought may be read as town, and therefore posting it, isn’t too much of a leap from there. so IDK anymore
*ended up looking through your (Tutuu’s) games instead; I might look at Splatfest but now that this seems a lot more within reach IDT there’s much point
Leafia I’m leaning town on. The postcount thing is a big part of that - it’s something concrete to latch on to, compared to most other things here
there’s also Magnus’ confidence in their read on Leafia, who they feel is someone who’s easy to read:
and some minor points like their initial flavor claim (I’m pretty certain there were other points too, but I don’t remember those rn)
having just gone through Leafia’s ISO reminds me of a few things I wanted to ask about though
so
here you sheep tutuu on Garfooled, and then immediately see tutuu rescinding this read
why didn’t you unvote there?
Gar had asked you the same question, in response to which you said:
which doesn’t feel right? like if the primary reason you have for voting goes away. and you’re left with reasons that weren’t convincing enough to vote beforehand. it seems strange to leave your vote there?
I’m somewhat concerned by the fact that I am planning to vote bystander because I don’t townread her, rather than being able to confidently point to anything that would state that she is a wolf. I can see a villager acting exactly as bystander has here. The trouble is that I can also easily see a wolf acting exactly in the same way. There are mildly alignment-indicative tidbits I can find in her posts, but it really is working off of crumbs.
I want to ensure that there is nothing I am overlooking to take the most convenient road. Before you criticize me for saying this, look me in the eye and tell me you don’t think bystander’s performance here is not an order of magnitude easier to execute than anybody else’s in this game. Resignation is never a useful thing to capitulate to.
Specifically, before I place a vote (which I will not do until tomorrow, regardless of anything), I would like to analyze potential partnerships with bystander: not just interactions, but whether a player’s behavior makes sense as a wolf with her, similar to what tutuu was working on earlier, to find any given hypothetical wolfteam’s strategy and see if it is realistic. I would encourage others to do the same.
I will not do so tonight, as I have to head to bed now. Good night, everybody.
Leafia / Bystander isn’t out of the question, though not super likely
in that world, I think Leafia feels Bystander is dead weight, and is fine with risking Bys going over, given Leafia’s votes earlier today
Leafia can then kill tutuu tonight to avoid suspicion, and can probably justify being alive in F3 since, if Bystander goes over today, there will be people other than Leafia who are fairly responsible as well.
Garfooled / Bystander is more realistic; the distancing at the beginning, without any votes, makes sense for wolf partners
In this world their strategy is to distance but not actually get each other killed
The only awkward thing about this world is they manage to hit the vig despite neither of them having a ton of time, nor either of them being likely vig candidates (imo)
Rhea / Bystander I like a lot
Overall, there’s the idea of distancing without killing, and then today Rhea hopes to subtlety save Bystander.
Rhea has Bystander at the bottom of their reads list for the whole game, but doesn’t vote them at EOD1, when it would’ve been pretty reasonable to make that case. They also don’t challenge other people’s reasons to TR Bystander D1, which makes sense if in reality they want people to TR them.
During N1, Rhea has an easier time finding the vig by removing themselves, and does seem like a competent player in this regard (yeah I see they say they’ve said they tend to leave PR hunting to their teammates, and have played more vanilla games. they can just be lying about that though).
From Bystander’s side, she today suggests Gar/Rhea as the most likely wolfteam, but again doesn’t vote anyone.
Rhea puts much higher standards on everyone today, but leaves them pretty similar for Bystander - Rhea wolfread Bystander D1, and they still wolfread them a similar amount now. Though if you compare the language used to describe the read…
Early D1:
Here Rhea is pretty confident, whereas today:
Now, I do understand why Rhea would feel this way as town - I’m not calling this wolfy in itself. T!Rhea knows that, even if Bystander is wolf, there’s still one other townread wolf, so it’s reasonable to wonder if there’s two. And we’re 1 misexe away from LYLO, so it’s natural to be more cautious here. But regardless, it makes a lot of sense from the perspective of Rhea/Bystander as partners.
@tutuu
do you think this unpairing is sound? I can maybe see Gar doing this if they think Magnus will be able to answer it regardless
and if not, is there anything that does unpair Magnus/Gar?
also to be clear, intent to vote bystander
looking at unpairings since I was playing through F5 LYLO scenarios after t!Bys in my head, and having 1 extra team removed is very nice
this doesnt look like an unlikely w/w interaction to me. ime when wolves distance they rely on their TMI they have on their partner (not intentional, just how it is) so it helps paint everything they do is scummy and they can go overboard in the distancing. it depends on the specific people but personally i wouldnt assume “optimal” play, whatever that may mean, also i dont think that magnus was put on the spot at all, everybody ignored that interaction
anyway VOTE: Bystander
wouldn’t mind a hammer here; I’ll probably be asleep for most / all of the remaining time anyway also a little bit of me kinda hopes they flip town so I can play F5 LYLO
)