I mean
yeah this is probably how it has to be with W!Rhea.
I think that’s a strange event though, because w!Rhea needs to survive today, and realistically, a Leafia kill fails at that.
Why killing Leafia gets Rhea voted
Killing Leafia ~locks Magnus’ vote onto her:
Killing Leafia ~locks Gar’s vote onto her:
–Realistically, Rhea would never be able to kill one of Magnus/Tutuu/Me today, so they would have to be pushing Gar. Which means Gar’s vote would be in self-pres on Rhea (or in an active scumread).
So, to avoid dying today, she would need both of us (Tutuu/Me) to misvote Gar - but that is a pretty hard ask, especially when I made this yesterday:
in which I felt the most likely partner for Bystander was Rhea.
Whereas, killing you (Tutuu) works a lot better.
Why killing Tutuu is better
Although Magnus thinks it’s Rhea, there’s more room for tinfoiling Leafia.
More importantly, though, is Leafia’s vote:
Which would most likely end on Magnus. Note also, that Leafia townread Rhea:
D1:
D2:
So, not only would Leafia likely misvote Magnus, but they would be very unlikely to vote Rhea (and may even take part in their defense).
And Gar’s vote would also, unlike with a Leafia kill, not necessarily be on Rhea, because Rhea would have the freedom to push Magnus. This would make Gar’s vote not be locked in self-pres on Rhea, unlike in the world where Leafia dies.
I don’t feel Rhea would kill according to who she found towniest - if she’s wolf, she’s demonstrated the ability to swing around her reads on a whim. So, what matters is not what she believes, but what everyone else believes, and where everyone else is likely to vote. And, as shown above, killing Leafia leaves everyone likely to vote her.
I’ve realized I have a tendency to think a thought and a conclusion based on it, but then not state my conclusion up front (which to me I don’t notice as being unclear, because I already know it)
so I tried to fix that there
also after writing this I am way more convinced
I hadn’t remembered Leafia’s townread on Rhea earlier
so now honestly this kill just looks like throwing for w!Rhea
Rhea couldn’t have predicted that I’d have changed my reads in this way overnight - while yes it’s possible, it’s more likely that I would start the day inclined to vote Rhea.
Also,
Though we aren’t, Magnus and Gar are still pretty set on her.
My gut instinct right now says it’s Magnus, but my gut has said it’s Magnus, Rhea, and Gar, each at different times. Logically I’m not sure yet (hence why I’m not voting).
The execution order which Zug seems to be implicitly proposing is Magnus + Garfooled in either order, which I fundamentally disagree with because it loses the game 9/10 times. Garfooled is suspected as mere low-hanging fruit whereas I’m only drawing heat now as the standard perpetual tinfoil slot, not from any given evidence to believe I am any more likely to be evil than other slots.
Zug’s acknowledgement that Rhea would have little reason to kill Leafia outside of a frame attempt has an awfully sound texture, and yet nonetheless I have better reason to townread everyone else. Rhea hasn’t been all that defensive or premeditative which doesn’t fit the picture of a framer, actually. At this point I’m only clinging to Rhea because suspecting anyone else feels uncharitable (in regards to specifically Zugzwang given the level of delicacy in his readlists and analysis) or else blatantly incorrect.
I, for one, already know what the F3 will be if Rhea happens to die today and flips town. I’ve already made my conclusion apparent for such a scenario even though it seems to go against what everyone else is saying. Garfooled isn’t preparing for the risk of such an inevitability which they’d need to do if they were evil. None of this matters because I’m always misexecuted in F3, and we can’t kill somebody else now because then Rhea practically has to die in all eventualities anyway.
If Bystander is evil who has also been unpaired with somebody else, continuing to challenge them or dropping the argumentative tone either way has no bearing on whether the read would withhold.
The only reason to panic would be if you weren’t at all confident in w!Rhea and anticipated a final three. Bystander was relatively obvious after Pandora’s death, so you could argue there was a false sense of security even after Jail’s demise.
If I had to choose right now, I’d kill you today - if you flipped town, I’m unsure where I’d go.
No - I feel that if you’re wolf, Gar has a decent chance of misvoting me in F3. Yes, I’ve seen the history of your wolfgames here - but that doesn’t mean you’ll fail again.
