I’m going to try and go back to sleep
I’m still trying to weigh the odds of claiming but there’s a near 50% chance assuming Jackals takes the safe route, which I think they will, for the pr’s to just get killed off one by one with no protectives
Which ignored the chance of the protectives just missing or getting outplayed
But that is for one citizen.
To have 2 randed and thus invalidated we would have like…
2*15 / (17! / (3! * 14!)) = 30/680 ?
~ 4% chance.
So the ratio at which it skewers results of my initial results would be like 4:96.
And assuming it skewers them up, assuming maximum skewer (impossible one) of 39% (from 61% to 100% chance of Prot existing).
It means 4% of 39%, aka a maximum of 1,5% more chance for Prot existing if I taken it into account. In reality much less.
Just assume it’s 61-62% if you really want it, but it’s too negligible for me to count again what the chance is for this situation to really happen.
But realistically, let’s get to the basics - I don’t think it really matter that much if prot exists or not when it comes to mass claim sugestion.
The chances that its directly more beneficial to kill off the prs when the mafia/jackals could infight against eachother with their nightkills while the prs themselves get an average of 3 kills split between them in comparsion to ~2 in the better cases is
Something I’d rather save when socially we don’t have any leads
I’m tired and I don’t really want to make horrible points because of it
Goodluck town!
I’m gonna try to get to bed because I woke up at 3 am
Why would you say it’s ~2 in better cases?
I heavily disagree with you on that one, considering that it actively helps most of a time to PRs.
Without mass claim:
Jailor and vig lose ability to kill if they kill town.
Mayor gets 2 lynches (so + 1 kill)
Firebrand kills however much they won’t, or no one if they get found out and killed.
With mass claim:
Jailor and vig have better idea who to kill to increase chance of hitting scum.
Vig can be roleblocked. Jailor cannot.
Mayor is unaffected since it’s day ability (still + 1 kill)
Firebrand loses the most, since limited time means less time to kill people. So they will kill less, but on higher accuracy.
Aka jailor and vig really lose value only if they killed scum in the first place, in which place they would have another shot at killing scum. But logically speaking, it’s not really happening super often, is it?
Wait so do we want to do this claim
It feels like not much has happened and this can generate reads
Exactly my point
That’s not too bad.
It’s 2 kills controlled by the mafia.
Meaning in that case that they might hit the town recruit.
The ideal world is we get rid of the Jackal, the mafia hit out the Mafia recruit (and earn a 2x kill) and use that 2x kill to hit out the town recruit too. Slashing our KPN to 1. And making this simply town vs a 2 person mafia. No longer multiball.
there is an increased chance, providing no scum claim pr. logically correct, but it will only increase their accuracy if they have planned to shoot the pr claims in the first place
firebrand will probably have to instantly kill, which was my main problem: the only role combo that would be worth it would be mayor/jailor, and that’s only if they get three kills before dying: vig loses out on 1-2 nights of kills in most scenarios, and Firestarter loses out on 2-ish kills aswell
The amount of mech talk isn’t really the thing that sources
Reads
And inflates the posts in thread a lot more then needed
So I’m probably going to leave it to the people who enjoy ir
I’m pretty against the idea, but if people want the thread to massively it’s mostly fine
Those cannot rand together
I knew I should’ve tried harder to sleep
It’s pretty bad for TK in general
Eevee’s focus on mech is something that I obviously have to wait longer to get something from
Kiiruma is fine
I’m still mainly suspicious of Hippo/Eliza
Rajidae seems uninformed? I think
Frost feels a bit off
Pigeon isn’t doing anything really
Jarek doing nothing seems worse in his case
Chihiro/Marluna/Kabazame commented on the game starting and left, which feels off
Icet is posting a lot but isn’t really saying much in the posts, if that makes any sense?
The mooglefanclub is fine
Hazard seems okayish
Wazza seems okay too
Sorry if this doesn’t make any sense
Like how the mafia has all the informed information on their partners and the uninformed people don’t
That’s partially not true.
jackal know the recruits, recruits know each other, but the recruits don’t know the jackal themselves. As it’s like it’s done in secret.
I missed that part
sorry
I was really tired when I read the explaination post
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There can be only 1 RT cit, so randing two or more is impossible. So we definetly have at least 4 PRs.
It is also possible that wehave six PRs. (One of them obviously have to be Jackal alligneg in this case)
You know, you aren’t wrong. It also takes up the random town slot. So its more likely for town recruit to be citizen as well. So the jackal can change that role into something else without any repercussions or breaking the role list.
But that also mean town have even less random town claims and mafia can’t fit in here.
Alternatively, one town PR claim too many.